I would Zack Wheeler will be toeing the rubber for the Phillies this afternoon in St. Louis, but after last week, that might not be entirely accurate.
Instead, let’s just agree that he and Philadelphia will be looking to take the rubber match of this three-game series against the Cardinals, after the club lost 2-0 on Tuesday night.
Can the Phillies bounce back? Let’s preview this NL clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
I joked about Wheeler above, and while nothing really came from #RubberGate other than some spicy post-game quotes, the RHP is on a bit of an odd run in his past three starts. Let’s recap. On July 27 in Miami, Wheeler surrendered a season-high five earned runs to the Marlins in only three innings of work. In his next start on August 2, Wheeler was pulled after just two innings due to a nearly two-hour rain delay. Then, this past Friday, he walked a season-high five Blue Jays batters on the way to his third loss of 2026. For some context, Wheeler had issued five total walks combined in his past seven starts prior to August 7. Go figure.
Still, for anyone starting to question the 36-year-old’s credentials, Wheeler’s stats from the season as a whole are pristine. Over 110.1 innings of work, Wheeler has maintained a 2.69 ERA and a 2.72 xERA — the second-lowest mark in MLB among pitchers with at least 100 innings thrown. He’ll be a real challenge for a Cardinals lineup that isn’t hitting at all since the All-Star break. To wit, St. Louis ranks dead-last in the National League in home runs (15) and ISO (.102) since the Midsummer Classic. The team has also mustered just a .289 wOBA and an 83 wRC+ in that span of time. The biggest issue? Home Run Derby winner Jordan Walker, arguably the breakout star of the first-half of 2026, is slashing a paltry .245/.290/.319 in his last 23 contests. Not great.
If there has been a bright spot for the Cardinals in recent weeks, it’s been the performance of Kyle Leahy. The converted reliever has produced some amazing surface stats in his last eight starts, pitching to a 1.49 ERA and a 2.82 FIP dating back to June 23. However, the confusing thing with Leahy is that he’s not exactly flawless when you start to look under the hood. For the entirety of 2026, the 29-year-old’s 5.21 xERA is nearly two full runs higher than his actual ERA (3.45). That disparity stems from Leahy surrendering a second percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.5) and a second percentile opponent hard hit rate (48.5%). At some point, you’d have to expect all that loud contact to come back and bite Leahy and St. Louis.
Phillies vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8 (-117)
While I don’t necessarily trust Leahy’s recent success, the fact of the matter is he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last eight starts. Combine that with Wheeler’s track record and these two struggling lineups, and you’re left with a pretty compelling case for the under.
