We’ve got a six-game slate for Thursday’s MLB action. Afternoon baseball!
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Max Fried, New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners ($8,500) — I’ve always appreciated Fried, but this is surprisingly the first time I’ve written him up all season. His K-BB% is 16%, which isn’t great, but his career range has been 15% to 20%. He’s always done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard — but he’s been extraordinary this season, allowing only one home run in 81.1 innings. His FIP is a career-low 2.39. But while the season-long numbers have been great, there has been some inconsistency from a fantasy perspective. He’s produced single-digit FPTS four times, but has put up over 20 FPTS eight times, with a high of 37 FPTS. Against southpaws, Seattle ranks 11th in strikeouts, 26th in ISO, 29th in wOBA, and 25th in wRC+.
Value
Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians ($7,000) — There are surprisingly many cheap options to choose from on this slate, but I have concerns about the matchups for some of the others. Montero isn’t dazzling for fantasy due to his 17.5% strikeout rate, but his walk rate is only 5.7%, his FIP is 3.87, and he’s allowed 13 home runs in 122.1 innings. He has given up more than three earned runs six times, while producing single-digit FPTS 11 times. On the flip side, he’s cleared 20 FPTS six times and now gets a Cleveland team that ranks 29th in ISO, 28th in wOBA and 25th in wRC+.
INFIELD
Stud
Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds ($4,800) — Vargas has 25 home runs, 79 runs, 68 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases in 513 plate appearances. His batting average is low at .235, but the BABIP is only .239 while the launch angle is 20.7 degrees. The strikeout rate is only 17.9%, while the walk rate is 12.9%. Vargas has posted a 90.6 mph average exit velocity, a 14.1% barrel rate, and 74.1 mph bat speed. He has posted a 152 wRC+ and a .284 ISO against lefties. He’s provided fantasy goodies in eight straight games, with four performances over 10 FPTS. Lefty Andrew Abbott has a 5.31 FIP and 1.7% K-BB% against righties.
Value
Abimelec Ortiz, Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs ($2,200) — Ortiz was recalled on August 3. He has two home runs in 25 plate appearances with a 20% strikeout rate, a .292 ISO, and a .292/.320/.583 slash. The BABIP is .294, so it hasn’t been about luck. He’s smashing the ball with a 92.6 mph average exit velocity, a 15.8% barrel rate, and 76.4 mph bat speed. He and Andres Chaparro are a platoon partnership at first base, with Ortiz being on the strong side. The matchup isn’t great as Kevin Gausman has been very good this season, but the price/upside combo is too great to ignore.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays ($5,000) — Max Scherzer was atrocious earlier in the season, as he dealt with back and arm issues. But he’s been strong since returning to action, posting a 2.57 ERA and a 15.3% K-BB% in his last three starts. I’m skeptical, though, especially since the strand rate is 91.5% with a .275 BABIP. The FIP is much higher at 3.94. Now he faces one of the hottest teams in baseball, the Boston Red Sox. Abreu has a 90 mph average exit velocity and a 12.8% barrel rate. He has posted a .211 ISO with 16 of his 21 homers against right-handed pitching. Abreu has put up double-digit FPTS in six of his last eight games, including four performances over 20 and a high of 30.
Value
Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays ($3,000) — Yoshida has little power, as the ISO is only .129, but he’s been batting fifth in the order and has a 9.6% walk rate and 10.7% strikeout rate. His contact rate in the zone is 91.5%. Yoshida has put up double-digit FPTS in four of his last seven games, hitting .346 with four doubles, a home run, four runs scored, six RBIs, four walks and only three strikeouts during that stretch.
