BvP. It’s maybe the most polarizing stat in the world of daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting.
While it would seem obvious that a batter’s history with a specific pitcher would be incredibly important and useful information, BvP numbers laugh in the face of sample size. They not only make us draw conclusions from an amount of at-bats that could take place over the course of two or three games, but remember, those games could have happened a half decade ago.
That said, I’d want to know if someone has a couple home runs of a starter that’s pitching tonight. Who wouldn’t?
In this space, I’ll attempt to toe the line between BvP love and hate. Let’s look at some matchups and see if history really is going to mean success on tonight’s six-game featured DFS slate on DraftKings.
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Top BvP Matchups Today
| Batter | Pitcher | Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) | Daniel Lynch (KC) | .333/.429/.833 – 1.262 OPS |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | Ranger Suarez (BOS) | .600/.600/.600 – 1.200 OPS |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | Luis Castillo (CWS) | .200/.333/.800 – 1.113 OPS |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) | Bryce Miller (SEA) | .400/.400/.600 – 1.000 OPS |
| Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) | Daniel Lynch (KC) | .143/.250/.571 – .821 OPS |
**Minimum five at-bats**
BvP Matchup Analysis
Freddie Freeman ($5,500) vs. Daniel Lynch ($5,500) | 1.262 OPS (6 ABs)
So here’s the deal. Lynch used to be a starter, but since 2024, he’s been primarily working out of the Royals’ bullpen. However, in his last time out on Friday, Lynch opened for the first time in 2026, facing 10 batters and throwing 35 pitches. The results weren’t great, as the former first-round pick allowed three earned runs — his first runs conceded in nearly six weeks — but Kansas City appears to be trying the experiment again on Wednesday. That all means that there’s a chance Freeman could see the lefty twice. Freeman does have some success off Lynch, with a .429 OBP and a home run in seven career plate appearances, yet it’s worth noting the LHP’s splits specifically this season. Lynch has held opposing LHBs to a .150/.200/.188 slash line. Woof. If you’re paying up for Freeman on the slate, the presence of bulk man Mason Black is a far better reason.
Elly De La Cruz ($6,200) vs. Luis Castillo ($7,500) | 1.113 OPS (5 ABs)
De La Cruz only has one career hit off Castillo, but it was a home run. So here we are. The Reds’ shortstop actually owns this slate’s second-highest salary, sitting only behind Shohei Ohtani ($6,500). Why that’s the case is a little unclear. De La Cruz does have a chance for a 30/30 campaign in 2026, but he’s also slashing a putrid .182/.282/.364 in August with a 73 wRC+. The 24-year-old switch-hitter has been significantly better against LHPs than RHPs this season, too, though that is an anomaly when you look at the totality of his time in the majors. Meanwhile, Castillo has his own recent struggles. Over his past four starts, the veteran has given up 3.43 opponent home runs per nine with a 7.29 ERA. Maybe Elly is worth the money.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,000) vs. Ranger Suarez ($9,000) | .000 OPS (9 ABs)
We focus so much on potential good matchups as dictated by BvP. This time, let’s look at a spot that is a clear stay-away. Suarez might be new to the AL East this season, but it seems like he’s going to be a headache for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for a long time. Not only has Vladdy not reached base in any of his nine career plate appearances against Suarez, but he’s struck out in 55.5% of them. That’s strange for a lot of reasons. Even with his struggles in 2026, Guerrero still owns a 89th percentile strikeout rate (13.5%). He doesn’t go down swinging all that often. He also sports a healthy .374 expected wOBA versus LHPs. Still, for whatever reason, Suarez just dominates when duo clashes.
