While they’re a few games out of a Wild Card spot, the Cincinnati Reds have hope that they can sneak into the postseason if they keep up the solid stretch of play they’ve been on lately. They get another matchup with the Chicago White Sox tonight, who haven’t been great since the All-Star break but remain atop their own division. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Reds vs. White Sox game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reds vs. White Sox prediction, preview
The Reds have found some positive momentum recently, going 14-9 since the All-Star break to pull within four games of the .500 mark at 57-61. However, a -73 run differential is still rather telling, so there’s reason to be wary about the club’s chances of postseason contention even at 5.5 games shy of the Wild Card. They face the White Sox this evening, who are 61-57 on the season with a +36 differential; however, Chicago is only 11-12 since the break and hasn’t looked all that great despite still leading the AL Central.
RHP Rhett Lowder (4-7) gets the nod for the Reds tonight. He carries a high 5.26 ERA into this outing with a 1.48 WHIP, and he’s struck out just 73 batters over 89.0 IP. That gives him an 18.3% K% with a 9.8% BB% as well, and his Sabermetrics profile grades out below average in most categories. The Cincinnati bullpen ranks 25th in ERA at 4.46 with a 1.42 WHIP and a 9.0% K-BB%.
RHP Luis Castillo (3-9) makes his second start for the White Sox after being traded from the Mariners at the deadline. He carries a 5.30 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP and 91 punchouts over 103.2 IP into this game. His K% is only 19.7% but the BB% of 7.2% looks better, and a chase rate of 32.4% is above average. As for the relief staff, Chicago’s arms are 10th in ERA at 3.84 with a 1.31 WHIP and an 11.8% K-BB%.
There’s a pretty fair discrepancy between the bats, though. On the full season, the Reds are just 23rd in OPS at .704, though they’re one of the better power-hitting groups at seventh in ISO (.168) and sixth in home runs (155). They also don’t hit right-handers very well, slashing just .225/.302/.391 with a .693 OPS. The White Sox, however, are still 14th in club OPS at .721, as well as fourth in ISO (.169) and tied with Cincinnati in homers (155). Against righties, they’re slashing .237/.316/.405 with a .722 OPS.
Reds vs. White Sox pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the White Sox as a -137 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, while the Reds enter as +127 underdogs to win on the road. The run total is set at 8.5.
Lowder has very quietly been better over his last month or so, allowing two or fewer earned runs in six of his seven starts since July 1. The one exception was an eight-run blowup against the Rockies at Coors Field, for what it’s worth. Granted, a couple of those games were short outings for him with three or fewer innings, but still, it’s an encouraging sign. Cincy has been hitting a little bit better than Chicago since the All-Star break as well, racking up a .707 OPS, though the scoring outputs still aren’t stellar for the most part at 22nd in runs over this sample.
It’s worth mentioning that Castillo has served up 17 home runs this year as well, 10th most among AL pitchers. Likewise, the 70 hits conceded are third most among the same group as well. It’s been a campaign to forget for the former standout, and a new environment may not help him iron things out after conceding five earned runs in his debut for the White Sox. He’s very mashable, and if any team can take advantage, the Reds are a good shout to do so.
