While this matchup doesn’t hold real implications for the WNBA playoff race, it sure has a lot of spice. The Phoenix Mercury and the Los Angeles Sparks combined on the biggest trade at the deadline, and now face each other for the first time since Kelsey Plum left LA. That alone makes this one a must-see.
The Sparks enter as 1.5-point home favorites with -122 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury are +102 underdogs, with the game total set at 179.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Mercury-Sparks matchup.
Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction, Preview
So far this season, the Sparks lead the season series 2-1, including a thrilling 111-102 overtime win during Commissioner’s Cup play. But there’s one key difference. Kelsey Plum played for the Sparks in the two wins, including a 43-point performance in that Cup win, and was a DNP in their only loss. Now that Plum is playing for the other side, the vibe of this matchup has shifted significantly.
Unfortunately for all fans involved, Plum has been ruled out of Tuesday’s game with a leg injury. So, in a way, nobody here gets Kelsey Plum. And that makes this matchup quite different.
The battle starts with two living legends in the frontcourt: Nneka Ogwumike for the Sparks and Alyssa Thomas for the Mercury. Nneka’s scoring and rebounding brilliance has continued for Los Angeles despite the turbulent roster around her, while AT remains one of the most versatile two-way talents in the league. If Nneka’s shotmaking can override a lot of AT’s defense, that is a major swing in favor of the Sparks. But on the other end, Ogwumike will have to contend with Thomas’ excellence as a post-up hub and passer.
There’s another storyline at play here. Monique Akoa Makani, who was traded from the Mercury to the Sparks as part of the Plum deal, is likely to see a lot of minutes guarding Kahleah Copper. I’m always fascinated with two recent teammates playing one another. Will those long practice battles favor the veteran Copper and her scoring prowess? Or will Akoa Makani have something up her sleeve?
Natasha Mack, the starting center for the Mercury, is my top X-factor. Los Angeles boasts a strong center rotation between Dearica Hamby and Cameron Brink, the former an offense-first big and the latter more of a defensive presence. Can Mack do enough to guard Hamby when the two match up? And when she faces Brink, will she be enough of a scoring threat to stop Brink’s rotational defense from wrecking the Mercury’s offense?
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to pull out the win, and how should we bet on this game?
Mercury vs. Sparks Pick, Best Bet
Even without Plum, I firmly believe that the Mercury are the better team here given the matchup. Thomas is the perfect defensive foil to Nneka and Dearica in the paint, and will cause them headaches all night long. Sparks point guard Erica Wheeler isn’t the kind of pressure point that Plum could be, and with Akoa Makani limited due to injury, they don’t have much of a defensive answer for the Mercury. The sheer talent of Kah and AT hasn’t been enough to get the Mercury through this season, but it’s enough to win this game.
