The war for WNBA playoff seeding rages on. Only one loss separates the New York Liberty from the Indiana Fever, and Tuesday’s game holds significant sway for the two would-be contenders. It’s safe to say these two teams will be at each other’s throats for this one.
The Fever enter as 4.5-point home favorites with -170 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Liberty are +142 underdogs, with the game total set at 191.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Liberty-Fever matchup.
Liberty vs. Fever Prediction, Preview
So far, the two teams have played twice, each pulling in a win. Funny enough, both teams got the win in a style distinct to their own identity.
During Commissioner’s Cup play, the Liberty pulled out an 83-75 win marked by elite defense. Playing without Sabrina Ionescu, New York leaned on Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Leonie Fiebich to buckle down and stop Indiana’s stars. It worked beautifully; Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, and Aliyah Boston combined for 44 points on 17-of-50 shooting. It’s awfully difficult for such a poor defensive team like Indiana to win when their stars are held down to that degree.
The next time around, Indiana’s offense got hot and Kelsey Mitchell was not to be denied. The Fever’s superstar scorer poured in 33 points on 10-of-14 shooting and the insurmountable wave of buckets drowned out the Liberty. Their depth showed out as well, with bench lineups outclassing a shallow Liberty team. Even though Sabrina Ionescu was back in the lineup, it wasn’t enough for the Liberty to make it two in a row.
This game comes down to whoever can set the tempo. The Fever want to run-and-gun, leveraging their league-best offense for the victory. New York wants to limit the pace and go to work in the halfcourt, where an elite frontcourt and defense can set the tone. A lower-scoring game greatly favors the Liberty, while a higher-scoring game plays right into Indiana’s favor.
It all hinges on Caitlin Clark. Her performances against contenders and non-contenders are stark. Before getting into that, let’s define contenders. In my opinion, the Lynx, Aces, Wings, Valkyries, Liberty, and Fever are the true threats to win the title. If you sort Clark’s 28 games by her game score, the top 14 are all against non-contenders; in fact, only two are against teams currently in the playoff picture. All nine games she has played against the real contenders are in the bottom 14. Two of the bottom five are against the Liberty. Indiana is 5-9 in those bottom 14 games.
This sounds harsh, but it’s fair for a player with such heavy expectations: when the lights are brightest, Clark does not show up. If that’s the case for this matchup with the Liberty, then New York is awfully likely to win and jump the Fever in the standings.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to pull out the win, and how should we bet on this game?
Liberty vs. Fever Pick, Best Bet
You can probably see where I’m going with this. The odds are against Caitlin Clark showing up in a big game, and if she doesn’t show up, the Fever have a hard time winning. The Liberty are beginning to get some momentum down the stretch, and I’m expecting a big road win for the Libs.
