There’s an AL showdown between a couple of postseason hopefuls set for this evening, but it’ll take some excellent stretches of play for either of these teams to sneak into October. The Baltimore Orioles are at Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins at 7:40 p.m. tonight as their series continues.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Orioles vs. Twins game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Twins prediction, preview
Neither side of this matchup is above the .500 mark, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be bad baseball. The O’s are 57-62 but are 11-11 since the All-Star break, while the Twins are 59-61 and 11-12 over the same span. Both have offenses that can get hot, and there are some very solid pitchers taking the mound.
Baltimore trots out RHP Brandon Young (8-3), who carries a 3.43 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP into this game. He’s struck out just 89 batters in his 107.2 IP with a 19.4% K%, but his 8.3% BB% is around the MLB average and his chase rate is high. The club’s bullpen is 18th in ERA at 4.19 with a 1.29 WHIP and a 12.6% K-BB% as well.
Minnesota deploys RHP Bailey Ober (7-3), who’s tossed 93.0 innings this year. His ERA is 4.45 but his WHIP is 1.22. The 63 strikeouts are rather poor with a low 16.2% K%, but a 6.2% BB% and an 84th-percentile barrel rate are excellent. The relief staff is one of the MLB’s worst though, amassing a 4.85 ERA that ranks 27th along with a 1.52 WHIP and a 9.1% K-BB%. Granted, the club did try and shore it up somewhat at the trade deadline.
On the whole this year, the Twins do have an edge offensively. They’re 12th in overall OPS at .725, 12th in wOBA (.319), 11th in ISO (.163), 13th in HR (143) and nineth in wRC+. They also slash .249/.317/.423 against right-handers for an OPS of .739. The Orioles certainly aren’t bad at the dish though. They’re 19th in OPS (.713), 18th in wOBA (.315), 14th in ISO (.158), 15th in HR (138) and 11th in wRC+ (102). Against righties, they bring a .235/.322/.391 slash line for an OPS of .713.
Orioles vs. Twins pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Twins as -109 Moneyline favorites at home tonight, though the Orioles are just behind as +102 underdogs to win on the road. The run total is set at nine.
It’s worth noting that Minnesota’s offense has cooled off since the break, sitting 23rd in wRC+ with a .670 OPS that ranks 23rd in the MLB. A .264 BABIP is probably a big reason why, but it’s not a major far cry from the season-long mark of .285. The Twins just aren’t hitting very well right now, which combined nicely with another factor to set up our best bet.
Bailey Ober has allowed batters who could potentially be in the Orioles’ lineup tonight go just 11-for-60 against him in the past with a slash line of .183/.222/.383. That’s even despite serving up four homers over this sample. In particular, Gunnar Henderson is just 2-for-15 with five strikeouts as well, possibly meaning he could wind up neutralized here in Minnesota. With neither team in great form and Ober’s track record against this lineup, I actually like the under on nine combined runs this evening.
