With first pitch scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET, the Philadelphia Phillies will open up a series against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. This is the first matchup of the season between these National League opponents, who are both firmly in the Wild Card race. If the season ended today, the Phillies would earn the final Wild Card slot while the Cardinals are 3.5 games behind them.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Phillies enter as narrow -115 favorites and hold +135 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cardinals hold +107 odds to win outright, with the run total set at nine.
Phillies at Cardinals prediction, preview
It has been a turbulent season for the Philadelphia Phillies with some significant ups and downs. They limped to a 9-19 start before finally playing to their talent level following the firing of Rob Thomson and climbing back in the postseason picture. The Phillies hold a 63-56 record on the season overall. Philadelphia currently holds a one-game advantage over the San Diego Padres for the final Wild Card seed, which will be a race to watch moving forward. On the season overall, the Phillies have gone 47-72 to the run line, and the run total is 52-60-7 to the over/under.
Andrew Painter will take the mound for the Phillies tonight, in what has been an underwhelming overall season. The rookie has made 14 starts and 16 total appearances to this point, entering with a 1-8 record, a 6.48 ERA, a 1.573 WHIP, 15 home runs allowed, and 63 strikeouts across 75.0 innings pitched. Painter was sent back down to the minors following some struggles, but has returned for his past two starts. He has made some mechanical adjustments and seen better results, allowing six total hits and three earned runs across these 10 innings pitched. Philadelphia did not add another starter at the trade deadline and voiced its belief in the 23-year-old, so it is now his time to prove himself.
The Phillies are slashing a collective .238/.308/.401 with a .709 OPS. They rank 21st in the league in hits, 14th in total runs, eighth in home runs, and have struck out the eighth-most times. Trea Turner leads the team with 119 hits on the season, along with 17 home runs and 49 RBI. Brandon Marsh adds 115 hits plus 16 home runs and 52 RBI, while Bryce Harper contributes 107 hits, 25 home runs and a team-high 71 RBI. Kyle Schwarber is the lone other player with 100+ hits and is tied for an MLB-leading 35 home runs on the year. Luis Arraez has provided a nice stylistic contrast in their lineup and was their biggest addition at the trade deadline, while Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto also play key roles.
The St. Louis Cardinals enter tonight’s matchup with a 59-59 record on the season. They sit in third place in the National League Central but are just 3.5 games back from a Wild Card seed. St. Louis enters this matchup having won five of its past seven games. On the season overall, the Cardinals have gone 63-55 to the run line, and the run total is 46-66-6 to the over/under.
Hunter Dobbins will be taking the mound for the Cardinals, marking his ninth appearance and sixth start of the season. The 26-year-old enters with a 2-2 record, a 3.60 ERA, a 1.300 WHIP, six home runs allowed, and 36 strikeouts in 40.0 innings of work. Dobbins threw 6.1 innings against the Yankees in his previous start, finishing with four hits and two earned runs allowed. Looking just at his numbers as a starter, he has a 3.81 ERA and 1.308 WHIP across 26.0 innings pitched.
At the plate, the Cardinals are slashing a collective .241/.316/.380 with a .696 OPS. St. Louis ranks 20th in the league in hits, 19th in runs, 22nd in home runs, and has limited strikeouts at the fourth-best rate. Jordan Walker headlines the production with 127 hits, 23 home runs, and 83 RBI on the season. Alec Burleson adds 126 hits, 19 home runs, and 78 RBI, while Ivan Herrera and JJ Wetherholt have each also eclipsed 108+ hits while combining for 29 home runs and 95 RBI. Masyn Winn, Nathan Church, and Jose Fermin also play key roles on the team.
Phillies at Cardinals pick, best bet
My lean is toward the Cardinals defending home field and picking up a victory against a struggling Phillies team. Philadelphia is coming off back-to-back extra-inning matchups and has a depleted bullpen that has its issues even under the best of circumstances. But this only strengthens my belief in my best bet, which is for the game total to soar past the nine-run over/under tonight.
Both these pitchers are inexperienced and capable of having blowup outings. Neither pitcher has faced off with these opposing lineup to this point in their career yet either. There should be fair reason for optimism surrounding the outlook for Andrew Painter following his latest two starts. But the bar is much lower than it should be for the former top prospect. He has yet to escape a start with fewer than three hits allowed and has given up four or more runs in seven of his 16 starts. The rookie also left his previous start due to a hamstring injury, which should be noted.
Philadelphia has been cautious of leaving Painter on the mound too long, as he has not thrown more than 6.1 innings in any start this season. He has been held to 5.0 innings or fewer in 11 of his 16 outings, which is especially concerning given the limitations of the Phillies’ bullpen. Collectively, they are posting a 6.08 ERA since the trade deadline, and Jhoan Duran is the only reliable arm. Orion Kerkering is the expected set-up guy, but is posting an 11.74 ERA over his past 10 outings. This includes allowing three earned runs in the eighth inning yesterday against the Blue Jays to blow the 5-2 lead in the eventual 12-inning victory. The Phillies are coming off back-to-back extra-innings matchups, so it will be interesting to see which arms they attempt to preserve tonight.
On the other side of the matchup, Hunter Dobbins is far from a sure bet either. He posted a 4.13 ERA last year with the Red Sox and has allowed three or more earned runs in four of his eight appearances this season. Dobbins has allowed six earned runs across his past two starts. On the season overall, the Cardinals’ bullpen is posting a 4.33 ERA, which is the ninth-worst rate in baseball, so expect some late-inning concerns as well.
Count on the Cardinals’ contact-first mentality at the plate to have success against Painter and for the Phillies’ lineup to be ready to slug against Dobbins. There are legitimate concerns about both starting pitchers and some additional flaws in the bullpens. Expect both lineups to do some damage and for each team to have a pathway to a strong scoring total.
Best bet: Over nine combined runs (-109)
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