The Milwaukee Brewers have blown the doors off their hinges, claiming a stronger grasp over the MLB’s best record in recent days. They look like every bit of a postseason threat as we’ve thought they were recently, but a new road series against the San Diego Padres may prove challenging given the recent hot stretch of the home club. Things kick off at 9:40 p.m. ET on Monday night at Petco Park.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Brewers vs. Padres game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Padres prediction, preview
The Brew Crew come off back-to-back wins and are 7-3 over their last 10 games, also holding the third-best record in baseball since the All-Star break at 15-7. They’ve pushed the run differential on the year to +141, surpassing the Dodgers for the MLB’s best as well. Meanwhile, the Padres have quietly emerged as a competent group that’s once again in the hunt for the Wild Card. They’re 62-57, have won seven of their last 10, and are 14-9 since the break after finally getting the offense going. If they can keep it up, the -10 run differential on the year should certainly improve.
There’s quite the matchup on the mound tonight. For Milwaukee, RHP Logan Henderson (6-1) gets the nod after returning from injury in July. He’s been quite good this year when healthy with a 2.70 ERA, an 0.90 WHIP and 62 strikeouts across 50.0 IP. He’s thrown to the tune of a staggering 32.3% K% and a low 5.2% BB%, making him one of the most efficient arms in baseball. Plus, his club’s bullpen ranks fourth in ERA with a 3.49 mark to match a 1.25 WHIP and a 14.5% K-BB%.
As for San Diego, trade acquisition Casey Mize (4-7) takes the ball this evening. The RHP was shipped out of Detroit at the deadline amidst a career-best campaign – he brings a 3.40 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 86 strikeouts over his 90.0 IP. Mize’s 23.7% K% won’t wow, but a 6.1% BB% is great. While not a significant concern, Mize did allow eight earned runs in his Padres debut last week over just 3.1 IP, but a change of scenery means there’s a little room to believe it was just a one-off stinker. Meanwhile, the club’s bullpen slots in at fifth in ERA at 3.65 with a 1.25 WHIP and a 15.2% K-BB%.
The case for both teams’ bats are interesting. Milwaukee ranks seventh in OPS this year at .735 and has been one of the MLB’s highest-scoring clubs with 4.96 runs per game. That’s despite an ISO that falls 25th at .145 and only 109 homers, fewest of any club – instead, the Brewers rely more on plate approach. They also slash a cool .258/.341/.411 against right-handers with a .751 OPS. However, they’ve been just a smidge colder lately since the break.
Over the same sample since the All-Star festivities, the Padres have one of the best offenses in baseball. They’re slashing .280/.354/.445 with an .800 OPS that ranks fourth in this span, also producing a .166 ISO an the fifth-most runs of any club. It’s a surprising shift given San Diego’s full-season sample of a .698 OPS that falls 24th and a .149 ISO that ranks 23rd, plus 128 homers, 20th in the sport. Overall this season, the club slashes .236/.315/.392 with a .707 OPS against right-handers.
Brewers vs. Padres pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as a -115 Moneyline favorite on the road this evening, while the Padres enter as +107 underdogs to win at home. The run total is set at just seven.
Betting this game feels a little bit tricky because on one hand, both offenses are quite talented and have shown plenty of upside. There’s a ton of it for Milwaukee, and San Diego finally looks good at the plate for the first time in what feels like forever. If the pitching matchups were different, perhaps this would be a night to smash the over. However, I’m actually going the other direction here given the quality of starters out there and the bullpen prowess shared between these sides.
Henderson has been awesome in a fairly limited sample of 50.0 IP, allowing two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his five starts since coming off the IL on July 9. He’s got strikeout upside and keeps runners off the basepaths, and while Mize had a blow-up game to start his Padres tenure, the former Tiger has also been very, very good on the larger sample this year. He had a sub-3.00 ERA in July and also has a low WHIP.
All in all, it just feels like this is a night to fade offense as long as Mize looks more like himself. Given his talent level, it’s likely we get a more standard performance here rather than the nightmare debut with his new team. For those reasons, I’m sticking with the under.
