The Los Angeles Dodgers are in search of their third World Series title in three years. However, they don’t quite look like true contenders over the last couple of weeks, struggling since the All-Star break and seeing their league and division leads shrink. They open a new series tonight against the Kansas City Royals, setting up a get-right game with first pitch set for 10:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Royals vs. Dodgers game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Royals vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
It’s been a rough few weeks for the Dodgers, who are just 9-12 since the All-Star break for a winning percentage of only .429. That’s below average by any standards, but especially for a club like this one that’s still 70-48 overall with one of the best records in baseball and a +138 run differential. Amidst a 2-8 skid, turning things around is becoming more and more crucial – meaning a matchup with the 49-70 Royals is likely welcome. Kansas City has a -110 run differential and is just 3-7 over its last 10 as well as 11-11 since the break.
LHP Noah Cameron (6-8) draws the start for the Royals here. He’s amassed a respectable 4.37 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP this year, striking out 116 batters in 123.2 IP. He’s not quite been the version of himself we saw as a rookie last season, but he’s certainly been a solid southpaw arm. However, the club’s bullpen ranks among the MLB’s worst, sitting second-to-last with a 5.36 ERA and dead last with a 1.56 WHIP and 7.9% K-BB%.
On the opposite side of this game, a bonafide superstar takes the mound for the Dodgers. LHP Tarik Skubal (7-6) makes his second start with his new team amidst another excellent campaign. He carries a 2.81 ERA with an 0.92 WHIP and 122 strikeouts. That’s good for a 30.7% K% with a 4.0% BB% as well. The relief staff has a 4.01 ERA that falls 15th plus a 1.28 WHIP and a 14.4% K-BB%.
The Dodgers not only have the far superior pitcher, but their offense is far better as well. They’re second league-wide in OPS at .766 and sixth in ISO at .168, also racking up the seventh-most homers with 151 on the year. Granted, they get the lesser of their splits against a southpaw with a .255/.328/.420 line and a .749 OPS in such matchups, but most teams don’t even hit that well to begin with. As for the Royals, their .710 OPS falls 20th with a .151 ISO that slots in at the same spot, while the club’s 120 homers sit 23rd. They have a slash line of .249/.314/.392 against lefties, but a .707 OPS likely won’t cut it against a stud.
Royals vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Dodgers as a very strong -282 Moneyline favorite at home tonight, while the Royals enter as +259 underdogs to win on the road. The run total is set at 7.5.
Skubal has faced the Royals just once this year, a matchup back on July 24 in which he went 7.1 innings with one earned run allowed on four hits and two walks… plus 12 strikeouts, a season-high mark. He was nails in that showing, and across 118 career at-bats, opposing hitters on this Kansas City roster are slashing just .212/.238/.381 against him with 33 strikeouts and a mere four walks. He’s dominated them in the past and should continue to do so tonight. He also looked fairly sharp in his Dodgers debut with 6.0 innings of work with two earned runs allowed on four hits and two free passes, plus six punchouts against the lefty-mashing Cubs last week. He should only get more comfortable with each game for his new club.
With all that said, under 1.5 earned runs allowed for Skubal tonight has the makings of a solid betting pick. He’s held opponents to such a low output in three of his six outings since July 1, and he gets a date against a lineup he knows well and tends to perform against. It’s a very solid night to take the simple bet.
