On Friday, the Seattle Storm completed their fall from dynastic grace by becoming the first team eliminated from playoff contention.
While the Storm are the only team to be mathematically out, the playoff field is effectively already set, as there’s a 5.5-game gap between the eighth-seeded Dallas Wings and the ninth-seeded Portland Fire. The Chicago Sky, who — like the Wings — have improved massively since tying for the league’s worst record in 2025, are practically as out as Seattle is.
The Sky will travel to face the Storm tonight at 10:10 p.m. ET. Role player Sydney Taylor and star Skylar Diggins are both out for Chicago with leg injuries, while three Seattle players have questionable designations: guard Flau’jae Johnson (ankle), center Ezi Magbegor (face), and guard Katie Lou Samuelson (knee).
The Sky are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 Moneyline), with the total set at 179.5 points. The Storm are +114 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this evening matchup and offer a prediction.
Sky at Storm Best Bet
Seattle Storm Moneyline (+114): This is arguably Seattle’s best chance to break its 11-game losing streak, at home against a fairly weak opponent. Chicago will be without two key guards in Skylar Diggins and Sydney Taylor, arguably its best shooters, and the Storm have a fairly significant home-court advantage.
Sky at Storm prediction, pick
Both teams saw significant roster turnover in the offseason, with Diggins making the move from Seattle to Chicago, but the Sky’s moves have borne more fruit than the Storm’s. Rickea Jackson tore her ACL just four games into the season, but Natasha Cloud and Diggins have provided veteran leadership, and center Kamilla Cardoso has made impressive strides. Chicago could be worse today without Taylor, as it’s been 11.5 points per 100 possessions better with her on the floor, but it’s 1-1 without her since her latest injury. Overall, the Sky have been about league-average on both sides of the ball, ranking 11th on offense and ninth on defense. Meanwhile, the Storm lost both Diggins and Nneka Ogwumike, and their young core of Johnson, Dominique Malonga, and Awa Fam has only resulted in bottom-five marks on both sides of the ball, a 6-28 record, and an 11-game losing streak. Of the three players on the injury report, Johnson would be the biggest loss; she’s battled through some rookie woes to help on both sides of the ball, and she actually has the seventh-best on-off net rating among all players with at least 700 minutes (plus-15.1).
Chicago’s Plan A is to thrive on the interior, as it attempts the second-most restricted-area shots per game, although it hasn’t been very efficient on such shots, converting at a league-low 59.5% clip. In particular, Cardoso attempts the second-most layups per game, only behind her former teammate Angel Reese, but she only converts at a 62.6% rate. That might be a difficult game plan to pull off against Seattle, which has allowed the fifth-fewest close-range attempts and limited opponents to roughly league-average accuracy. The Storm have been far worse at getting downhill and the Sky have had slightly better rim protection, but because of its fairly efficient finishing (especially Malonga’s), Seattle’s disadvantage in the paint isn’t massive. Chicago has out-scored its opponents by 1.3 points per game in the paint, and the Storm have been out-scored by 0.4 points per game.
Neither of these teams has been very good on the glass, but Seattle should have a slight edge. While the Storm only have a 48.1% rebounding percentage, good for fourth-to-last in the league, the Sky have been the league’s least competitive on the glass. Chicago has also been even worse on the glass without Diggins, while Seattle at least has the X-factor of Malonga, who’s had a net impact of 5.9 percentage points on the Storm’s rebounding percentage. Transition play should slightly favor the Sky, who have also done a better job drawing fouls than Seattle has. The Storm’s struggles to get to the charity stripe should be welcome news especially to Cloud, who will bear bigger responsibility with Taylor and Diggins out.
Seattle should have the slightest of edges from beyond the arc. Neither of these teams has been particularly three-point reliant, and both have made fewer than one-third of their triples, but Johnson’s potential absence could be addition by subtraction for the Storm, as she’s shooting just 27.0% from deep this season. Additionally, the Sky — who don’t attempt a lot of triples to begin with — could have trouble producing quality looks without Diggins (38.2% on 3.6 attempts per game) and Taylor (35.5%; 5.9 attempts). Both teams have been good at defending the perimeter, as Seattle has allowed just 31.8% accuracy and Chicago a 31.7% mark, but her increased offensive responsibility could slightly limit Cloud, on paper the best perimeter defender on either squad.
In what feels like a relative toss-up, I’ll take the home team at plus-odds. The Storm could easily lose if they can’t get penetration on the interior or if they can’t put Cloud in foul trouble, but they nearly have a positive net rating at home and the Sky have a negative-5.5 mark on the road. Taylor’s absence is a big one, as her shooting has been a critical aspect of Chicago’s success, and Magbegor’s potential absence could be a blessing in disguise. Malonga and Fam play better together than either does with Magbegor.
