Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple.
With that in mind, here are my top three NRFI picks for Monday’s full slate of MLB action.
| NRFI Bet Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
| Red Sox at Blue Jays | -125 | Both teams rank in the bottom five in the MLB in the number of times they have scored runs in the first inning this season. In the SP matchup, Sonny Gray has a seven-game NRFI streak, while Jameson Taillon has a two-game NRFI streak. |
| Mets at Braves | -115 | Both SP Bryce Elder and Christian Scott are trending in the right direction lately and come in with good NRFI streaks. Elder has converted 18 of 22 starts to NRFI with a seven-game streak, while Scott has converted eight of nine road starts and seven in a row overall. |
| Brewers at Padres | -130 | Casey Mize and Logan Henderson have been outstanding at NRFI this season, and both teams rank in the top 10 of NRFI rate for the year as well. |
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (-125)
Let’s open our NRFI props for Monday with a pair of divisional battles, starting in the American League East, where the surging Boston Red Sox start a four-game set with the Blue Jays. The Red Sox lost two of three to the A’s over the weekend but are still 64-53, solidly in the second Wild Card spot, while the Blue Jays are 56-63, 3 1/2 games out of the third and final Wild Card spot but still firmly in the race.
The Red Sox will give the ball to Sonny Gray, who has been excellent this season with a 2.78 ERA and 3.52 FIP. He has gone 14-2 in his 21 starts with a 1.15 WHIP against him, and he has an eight-game NRFI streak coming into this start. In his 21 starts, he has allowed a run in the first inning 14 times, which is slightly below league average with a 66.7% NRFI rate. However, his recent success and his overall form make him reliable enough to pick to keep the Jays off the board in the first inning, especially since the Blue Jays have scored a run in the first inning the second-fewest times of any team in the MLB.
Even after all their recent success, the Red Sox still rank in the bottom five in the MLB in run scored in the first inning percentage. They are below average in NRFI rate overall, but much of that is from early in the season, when they often gave up runs in the first frame. They’ll be facing Blue Jays starter Jameson Taillon, who has allowed no runs in the first inning of 11 of his 16 starts this season, including in each of his last two outings. Even though he has a 5.96 ERA on the season, he has done a good enough job getting through the first to make this one of my top NRFI plays of the day.
Since both teams score so rarely in the first and both starting pitchers have nice NRFI streaks, this is a good spot to start the night with a pair of gooseggs.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-115)
Over in the NL East, the Mets will look to play spoiler as they visit the Braves in Atlanta. While the season has been a huge disappointment overall for New York, they have been playing much better lately and have some exciting young contributors. They’ll take on the first-place Braves to start the week at Truist Park.
The Braves will open the series with Bryce Elder on the bump. Elder has been much better at home than on the road, going 6-2 with a 3.00 ERA in his 13 home starts. He has allowed a run in the first inning only four times in 22 starts overall this season and only twice at home. Elder has a four-game NRFI streak coming into this start and has allowed only three earned runs total over his last three starts. The Mets got to him at Citi Field earlier this season, but pitching at home should help him convert an NRFI to start this game.
He’ll be opposed by Christian Scott of the Mets, who has also been trending in the right direction lately. He has allowed seven earned runs in his last five starts and has a seven-game NRFI streak of his own. Scott has actually been excellent in the first inning on the road this year, allowing a run in the first frame of just one of his nine starts on the road this season. Scott faced the Braves two weeks ago and allowed just one run in six innings, and he has faced them twice during his current NRFI streak.
The two trending young starters are what make this NRFI prop a strong play for Monday night.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres (-130)
In a potential National League playoff preview, the Brewers are on the road at Petco Park to take on the Padres this week. The Padres are coming off a nice series win over the Astros, which they wrapped up on Sunday Night Baseball, and they’ll open this series by giving the ball to trade deadline acquisition Casey Mize.
Mize has an impressive track record of blank first innings coming in with a 20-game NRFI streak that dates back to last season. He has not allowed a run in the first inning of his 17 starts this season, even though he struggled in his Padres debut, allowing eight runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Diamondbacks. Even in that outing, though, he got through the first frame unscathed.
The NRFI hero will be opposed by Logan Henderson of the Brewers, who has the second-highest NRFI rate this season of all the SP on the slate behind only Mize. He has only given up a run in one of his 10 starts this season.
In addition to both starting pitchers being strong on NRFI rate this year, the Padres are a great team to attack in NRFI since they have the highest NRFI rate of any team in the MLB this year. The Brewers rank No. 8, so this matchup is strong across the board for NRFI rate.
