After a 2-0 start in 2025, Arkansas finished the season on a 10-game losing streak to wind up 2-10. Sam Pittman was fired following a 43-point home loss to Notre Dame, but nothing got better. Ryan Silverfield was hired from Memphis following the season, but he has a tall task in front of him to get the Razorbacks competitive again in the SEC.
Arkansas Razorbacks Win Total Prediction
I mentioned the 10-game losing streak to finish the 2025 season, which included an 0-8 record in SEC play. Unfortunately, the schedule does not ease up in 2026, as the SEC now plays nine conference games, all of which Arkansas projects as an underdog. The Hogs also have an extremely difficult task early in the season with their non-conference Power Four opponent — a Week 2 road trip to Utah, in which DraftKings opened the Hogs a double digit underdog in the GOTY market.
Like last year, the schedule offers two likely wins for the Razorbacks — the season opener versus North Alabama, and a Week 4 matchup against a scrappy Tulsa squad. Outside of that, wins will be tough to come by, and the Hogs will need to win three more games to go over their win total of 4.5. Every major publication that ranks strength of schedule has Arkansas playing a top-four difficult schedule nationally. Lindy’s ranks it the most difficult schedule in the country, highlighted by matchups against Georgia, LSU and Tennessee, with road trips to both Texas and Texas A&M.
The issue with finding any upset wins is that the roster did nothing to improve off of a terrible 2025. Every major publication has picked Arkansas to finish 16th in the SEC (dead last). The position rankings at all of these publications tells more of the same story — the Hogs have the worst talent in the conference, or close to it, at every single position.
The “strength” of the team might be the offensive line, which Athlon ranked 11th in the SEC. But that’s the most bullish any major outlet is on any position, with Pick Six Previews ranking the OL 15th in the conference, and every position group in the bottom-three. In fact, multiple publications rank Arkansas dead last in the SEC at quarterback and every single position on defense. Stops will be tough to come by, and the offense won’t be getting QB play to match scores on the other end of the field.
If there’s anything nice to say about the Razorbacks, it’s that they had a solid offense in 2025. They had five one-score losses, but that same offense would get completely shutdown in big moments and lose the game. That said, Taylen Green is gone, and the offense returns just four starters.
Only two starters return on the defensive side of the ball, which you could argue is a good thing. Arkansas couldn’t stop a nose bleed in 2025, ranking at, or near, the bottom of the country in every stat you could imagine. While fresh talent transfers in, the large majority of it is from much lower levels. We’ll find out what these guys are quickly, but they may be over their heads in the SEC.
Arkansas is clearly in a rebuild here, with no light at the end of the tunnel. I’ll make the Hogs prove they belong with the rest of the SEC, and predict they are not capable of pulling a few upsets in Silverfield’s first season at the helm. The first win total UNDER that I backed this season was Arkansas to win fewer than five games.
Bettors at DraftKings have tended to agree with the angle, as consistent under money have come in since the market opened. As of August 1, 85% of the bets for 95% of the money have been bet for Arkansas to go UNDER 4.5 wins, which has pushed the price out multiple times.
Win Total Pick: Arkansas UNDER 4.5 (-166)
For more analysis check out our College Football homepage on DraftKings Network.
