On DraftKings Sportsbook, Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry are tied for the lowest odds to finish the regular season with the most rushing yards.
What year is it? 2019? Derrick Henry led the league with 1,540 yards that season. He went back-to-back with 2,027 yards the following campaign. In 2021, Jonathan Taylor had the most rushing yards with 1,811. Will history repeat itself?
2011 is when enhanced safety rules to protect receivers went into effect. As a result, offensive output exploded, especially through the air. As a result, 2011 will be used as the starting point for statistical analysis.
Over that span, 12 different players led the league in rushing. Henry, Ezekiel Elliott and Adrian Peterson were the only ones to accomplish the feat more than once. Saquon Barkley, Henry and Peterson were the only ones to exceed 2,000 yards in a season. The average for all the rushing leaders was 1,676 yards at 5.13 yards per carry. Peterson was the only player to hit 6.0 yards per attempt while Elliot, Peterson, Kareem Hunt and Maurice Jones-Drew were the only ones to average fewer than 5.0 yards per carry.
Last season, James Cook took the crown with 1,621 yards at 5.2 yards per carry. Henry and Taylor were right behind at 1,595 and 1,585 yards respectively. It’s unlikely that Cook goes back-to-back, but he has to be mentioned in the conversation. He’s young, talented and plays in one of the best offenses in the league.
Only four players received at least 300 carries last season – Taylor, Henry, Cook and Christian McCaffrey. Buffalo was 31st in pass rate last season. Granted, the rushing prowess of Josh Allen plays a huge part in that, so the Bills will likely be towards the bottom in terms of pass rate. That said, Joe Brady is the new head coach, and he may be less conservative on offense than his predecessor, Sean McDermott. The Bills acquired DJ Moore at wide receiver while talks about utilizing Cook more in the passing game could signify more passing attempts this season. If so, that could mean fewer carries for Cook. Currently, Cook has the third-lowest odds at +650 and, barring injury, I feel comfortable that he will be in the mix for the rushing crown.
In his six-year career, Taylor has three seasons with over 300 carries. There are a ton of question marks, though. Quarterback Daniel Jones is recovering from a torn Achilles injury and a fractured fibula. In 13 games with Jones at quarterback, Taylor averaged 5.5 yards per carry and 104.3 yards per game. In four games without Jones, Taylor averaged 3.0 yards per carry and 57.3 yards per game. It’s not just the health of Jones we need to worry about. In 2022 and 2023, Taylor played 11 and 10 games due to injury.
As for Henry, he’s 32 years old and, at some point, Father Time is going to come for him. That said, Henry hasn’t missed a game in three seasons and carried 280, 325 and 307 times over that span. The offense is changing this season. On one hand, there could be more passing because it sounds like the Ravens will be utilizing more spread formations. That could also just provide more seams and smaller defenders for Henry to rumble over. I have more faith in Henry than Taylor to lead the league in rushing during the regular season.
Jahmyr Gibbs is an interesting one because David Montgomery is gone and he could see a massive increase in carries. Going back to Cook, he rushed 207 times for 1,009 in 2024. Last season, he received 102 more carries while increasing the efficiency. Gibbs rushed 243 times last season. Say he gets 50 more carries at 5.0 yards per attempt, that’s 250 yards which would bring his total to 1,473 yards. He’d probably need another 200 yards to be in the picture. That said, four of the rushing leaders since 2011 finished with fewer than 1,500 yards. The main issue for me is Jared Goff, who provides no rushing threat like Allen, so defenses can converge easier on the other weapons. Gibbs exceeded 100 yards only three times last season and was held to fewer than 4.0 yards per carry 10 times.
Bijan Robinson at +700 is in play for sure. Robinson has carried 287 and 304 times over the last two seasons. The offensive line should be good, especially with Bill Callahan as the new line coach. In addition, Tua Tagovailoa should be an upgrade over Kirk Cousins while Michael Penix Jr. recovers from injury. Drake London and Kyle Pitts provide explosive weapons in the passing game to keep defenses from stacking the box.
My longshot choice is Omarion Hampton at +2500. Hampton is 6-feet, 221 pounds and runs a 4.46 40-yard dash. He was selected with the 22nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Unfortunately, his rookie season only lasted nine games due to injury. Hampton has skills and the Chargers have talent on offense, especially with Justin Herbert under center. But it’s the acquisition of Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator that has me bullish towards Hampton. McDaniel utilizes pre-snap motion, attacks all levels of the defense and attacks seams in the defense, especially on the ground. During his second season in Miami, the offense ranked sixth in rushing yards, first in touchdowns and first in yards per attempt.
