Davante Adams led the NFL with 14 touchdowns last season while Ja’Marr Chase donned the crown in 2024 with 17 touchdowns. So, it’s no wonder that these two have the lowest odds on DraftKings Sportsbook at +650 for Chase and +700 for Adams. Can either one repeat this season?
Since 2011, no one has gone back-to-back for the regular season receiving touchdown crown. Ruh roh. Adams has won the title three times, though, the only player to accomplish the feat more than once. There are two tight ends on the list – Jimmy Graham in 2013 with 16 touchdowns and Rob Gronkowski in 2011 with 17 touchdowns.
The averages over that span were 95 receptions, 148 targets, 1,340 yards and 14.6 touchdowns. Only one player received fewer than 100 targets – James Jones in 2012 with 98. Five players finished with fewer than 80 receptions – Adams with 60 last season, Mike Evans with 79 in 2023, Kenny Golladay with 65 in 2019, Doug Baldwin with 78 in 2015 and Jones with 64 in 2012.
Adams and Chase over the past two seasons were at opposite ends of the spectrum, as Adams had 60 receptions for 789 yards while Chase caught 127 of 175 targets for 1,708 yards. There are many ways to skin the cat, but passing attempts and targets close to the end zone are muy bueno.
Last season, Matthew Stafford was second in the NFL with 51 pass attempts within 12 yards of the end zone with 45. Since Stafford arrived in Los Angeles, he’s attempted 42, 23, 37, 35 and 45 of those passes. Joe Burrow has attempted 20, 30, 21, 51 and 17, but the three healthy years consisted of 20, 30 and 51. Translation: there is a lot of variability from year to year.
Adams was second in the league with 16 targets within 10 yards of the end zone. He caught only five, but all for touchdowns. Adams ran 39 routes, the most in the NFL but garnered a 41% target rate and had a 31.3% catch rate. Chase only had eight targets, but Joe Burrow only played half the season. In 2024, when Chase led the league in touchdowns, Chase was second in the league with 13 targets, running 53 routes, garnering 24.5% of the targets with a 46.2% catch rate.
Both Adams and Chase are in explosive offenses with excellent quarterbacks. There should be plenty of opportunities to rack up touchdowns. Stafford is 38 years old, though, while Burrow has an extensive injury history with a suspect offensive line.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is tied with Adams at +700 to catch the most touchdown passes this season. St. Brown is an iron man, missing only two regular season games in his career. Targets? Check, as he’s garnered at least 140 in each of the last four seasons, with a high of 172. Receptions? Four-straight 100-catch campaigns. Touchdowns? Double-digits in each of the last three seasons. Two seasons ago, St. Brown led the NFL with 14 targets and 11 receptions within 10 yards of the end zone. Last season, he led the way again with 19 targets and 10 receptions. Quarterback Jared Goff attempted the third-most (40) passes within 10 yards of the end zone. St. Brown checks all the boxes.
There aren’t any longshots I love, both in terms of price and upside. There were only seven players to haul in double-digit touchdowns last season. The prior season was eight and, in 2023, that number was seven. So, the pool to choose from is extremely small to begin with. Now add in the fact that defenses have been playing more shell coverages and keeping everything in front, so those players that feast on the long ball have been nerfed, decreasing the pool even more. Which comes back to those heavily targeted close to the end zone. Targets are earned, especially in that area. As a result, we have a pretty good idea who those players will be, and they all happen to be priced up top.
