Major League Baseball wraps up the first weekend after the MLB Trade Deadline with a nice Sunday Night Baseball matchup on NBC. The Houston Astros are out in San Diego visiting the Padres in an important interleague series. Both teams are in the playoff chase and looking to get a series win with a win on Sunday night, with first pitch at 8:20 p.m. ET. DraftKings is ready for the big game, and the Sunday night slate features the Astros and Padres in some large MLB DFS showdown contests.
The pitching matchup features Cristian Javier ($10,800) making a second straight start for the Astros, going head-to-head with Randy Vasquez ($10,400) and the Padres. In a companion post, I highlighted my top player prop bets in Sunday Night Baseball’s matchup, including one prop bet from Javier. In this post, let’s break down this Astros at Padres matchup from a DFS fantasy baseball perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $100K Slugfest [$25K to 1st] (HOU at SD)
Astros at Padres DFS Showdown Strategy
Captain Picks
Yordan Alvarez ($15,300 CP) – Since both pitchers have been hittable and don’t rack up strikeouts, I’m focusing on big bats for my Captain spot this Sunday night. Alvarez is the biggest bat on the board, and he is a pay-up play to build around even though he came up empty on Saturday. His 0-for-4 performance with two strikeouts snapped a streak of seven straight games with at least 7 FPTS. In his last 11 games, he is averaging 10.5 FPTS per contest, even though he only has one home run during that stretch.
Alvarez is on the strong side of his splits against the righty Vasquez, since he has hit .349 against righties with an impressive .474 wOBA and 1.148 OPS on that side of his splits. Vasquez has allowed lefties to hit .311 with seven homers and an .873 OPS. Especially after a quiet night on Saturday, look for Yordan to bounce back and put together a big game against Vasquez and the Padres to secure the series win.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($14,400 CP) – The other big bat with a high ceiling on Sunday is Tatis Jr., who has at least 7 FPTS in five straight games and is averaging 9.9 FPTS per game over his last 11. He has hit safely in nine of those 11 games with a .326 average, .411 wOBA, and .966 OPS. He’s locked into the leadoff spot for the Padres and is in a favorable matchup against Javier, whom he is 1-for-4 with a home run against in their past meetings.
Tatis is playing extremely well and almost always finds a way to get involved in the Padres’ offense. Whether you use Alvarez or Tatis as your Captain, the other can be a solid anchor to your UTIL plays if you go with affordable plays on the rest of your roster.
UTIL Plays
Jackson Merrill ($8,200) – Merrill has picked up his production after a slow start to the season, and he’s gotten especially hot in August. Merrill has averaged 12.75 FPTS in his eight games this month after posting 21 FPTS on Saturday night by going 1-for-4 with his 17th homer and his 23rd stolen base of the season. With both power and speed potential, it’s exciting to see Merrill start to get it going, and he is a great UTIL option against Javier.
Cam Smith ($5,200) – Smith had a two-homer game on Friday with 33 FPTS on Friday. He went 0-for-3 with a walk on Saturday, but before that, he hit safely in seven of his previous eight games, averaging 11.5 FPTS per contest. Smith was a top prospect who has been learning on the job, and he seems to be finding his groove and looks ready to take his game to the next level.
Jake Cronenworth ($4,200) – Cronenworth has hit safely in six of his eight games in August, averaging 6.9 FPTS per game. Cronenworth typically hits second right after Tatis, and he has done a much better job getting on base than he was earlier this season. Cronenworth is still only hitting .220 with a 77 wRC+ on the season, but over his last 22 games, he’s hitting .289 with a 105 wRC+. He’s a bargain at just over $4,000, but especially hitting second, he brings good upside.
Fades
Cristian Javier ($10,800) – Since neither starting pitcher racks up strikeouts, I’m fading both starting pitchers, but especially Javier, who is the most expensive player on the board. Javier did have an impressive five-inning relief outing against the Angels at the end of July that earned him 27.4 FPTS, but other than that, he has been under 9.0 FPTS in each of his nine games this season. In his eight other games, he’s averaging only 1.8 FPTS per appearance.
Javier has battled injury over the last two seasons, limiting his production. He worked his way back from Tommy John surgery last year and battled a Grade 2 shoulder strain this year. He does have spike potential, but he’s too high-risk to build around.
The Outcome
The Astros should get to Vasquez, who has struggled at home with a 4.19 ERA. With Yordan leading the way with so many strong splits, Houston has a strong chance to get a road series win, even though there should be plenty of runs scored on both sides of this contest. I’m building my MLB DFS picks around Alvarez and Tatis, looking for plenty of runs from both squads.
Final Score: Houston 7, San Diego 5
