In the afternoon window of today’s full 15-game MLB slate, the Tigers will face the Giants.
These teams have split the first two matchups of the series to this point. The Giants secured a 5-2 win in the opening matchup, before the Tigers got back in the win column with an 8-0 win yesterday. Troy Melton and Logan Webb will take the ball for their respective squads today.
Looking at the odds, the Tigers enter as narrow -119 favorites on the Moneyline and hold +138 odds of covering the -1.5 Run Line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Giants hold +111 odds of winning outright, with the run total set at O/U 7.5.
Tigers vs. Giants prediction, preview
The Tigers enter with a 57-60 record on the season, which slots them in fourth place in the AL Central. In addition to the 8-0 victory yesterday, they’ve won six of their past eight games. On the season, Detroit is 60-57 to the Run Line, and the run total is 51-60-6 to the over/under.
Troy Melton will get the start for the Tigers tonight, marking his 13th of the season. The 25-year-old enters with a 7-1 record, a 1.58 ERA, a 0.905 WHIP, eight home runs allowed, and 64 strikeouts tallied across 74.0 innings pitched. Melton is coming off back-to-back scoreless seven-inning outings and has only allowed more than two earned runs in a start once this season. He has not faced any member of this Giants lineup yet in his MLB career.
At the plate, the Tigers are slashing a collective .244/.321/.411 with a .732 OPS. Detroit ranks 14th in the MLB in hits, 11th in total runs, 10th in home runs, and has tallied the 11th-most strikeouts. Kevin McGonigle leads the team with 124 hits, along with 12 home runs and 45 RBI. Riley Greene adds 116 hits, 16 home runs, and 54 RBI, while Dillon Dingler is the other lone player with more than 90 hits. In addition to his 113 total hits, Dingler leads the team with 26 home runs and 80 RBI. Spencer Torkelson adds 20 home runs and 59 RBI, while Zach McKinstry, Gleyber Torres, and Javier Baez also play notable roles.
The Giants have slipped to 49-68 on the year, which slots them at fourth place in the NL West. They have lost six of their past eight games, including being shut out in three of them. On the season, the Giants have gone 59-58 to the Run Line, and the run total is 53-53-11 to the over/under.
Logan Webb will be on the mound for San Francisco, marking his 21st of the season. The three-time All-Star enters with a 7-7 record, a 3.74 ERA, a 1.112 WHIP, nine home runs allowed, and 101 strikeouts tallied across his 125.0 innings pitched. He is coming off a scoreless five-inning outing in his last start, but is posting a 5.45 ERA across his past six starts. Webb has faced this Tigers’ lineup in 49 at-bats in his career, limiting them to 11 hits and recording 17 strikeouts in these opportunities.
Looking at the production at the plate for the Giants, they are slashing a collective .250/.307/.410 with a /717 OPS. San Francisco ranks eighth in the league in hits, 24th in total runs, 19th in home runs, and has tallied the sixth-fewest strikeouts. Jung Hoo Lee leads the team with 122 hits, along with eight home runs and 45 RBI. Rafael Devers adds 109 hits of his own, while leading the team with 24 home runs and 64 RBI. Willy Adames adds 19 home runs and 48 RBI of his own, while Drew Gilbert and Bryce Eldridge also play notable roles.
Tigers vs. Giants pick, best bet
Detroit’s bats came alive yesterday in the 8-0 victory, with six runs coming in the seventh inning. It took the Giants three different pitchers to get out of the inning. This is a San Francisco bullpen that offers the ninth-highest bullpen ERA on the season, and I’d expect a few of its top relief arms to be out of action tonight. This will be a concern against the Tigers’ offense that is averaging 8.4 runs per game across its last 10 games.
There is enough of a sample size with Melton to begin believing he is the caliber of pitcher he has pitched to. He is posting a 1.58 ERA on the season and has a 1.13 ERA when pitching on the road. Melton has gone back-to-back outings without allowing a run, and the Tigers are 10-2 on the season in games that Melton has started.
Even while Webb has had a strong season, he has had some struggles of late, and the bullpen behind him is an even greater concern. The outlook for the Giants’ run production is also much less favorable following the trade deadline. San Francisco elected to be sellers and moved on from Luis Arraez and Heliot Ramos, while Harrison Bader, Matt Chapman, and Casey Schmitt are each on the injured list.
The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six matchups with the Giants. Detroit has also won eight of its last nine day games against NL West opponents, and the road team has covered the Run Line in 13 of the Tigers’ last 16 games. I’d expect the Tigers’ bats to remain hot, and for the Giants’ underwhelming bullpen and limited offense to prove problematic. Count on the Tigers picking up the road victory tonight as these two teams continue to trend in opposite directions.
Best bet: Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-119)
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