It is a loaded day of MLB action with all 30 teams facing off. With the first pitch scheduled for 6:05, the Toronto Blue Jays will face the Philadelphia Phillies in the second matchup of this series. The Blue Jays picked up a 5-4 victory last night, and these two teams will turn the ball to Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola tonight.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Phillies enter as -160 favorites and hold +119 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Blue Jays hold +149 odds to win outright, with the run total set at 9.5.
Blue Jays at Phillies prediction, preview
The Toronto Blue Jays have slipped to last place in the American League East with a 55-62 record on the year. They picked up a victory over the Phillies last night and are 6-3 across their past nine games. On the season overall, the Blue Jays are 53-64 to the run line, and the run total is 57-56-4 to the over/under.
Max Scherzer will get the start for the Blue Jays, his ninth of the season. The three-time Cy Young winner has struggled this year, entering with a 1-4 record, a 7.92 ERA, a 1.630 WHIP, nine home runs allowed, and 23 strikeouts tallied across his first 30.2 innings pitched. Scherzer has dealt with some injuries this season, but he made his return and has looked more encouraging as of late. He has allowed one earned run in back-to-back starts entering this matchup and looked more like himself.
At the plate, the Blue Jays are slashing a collective .242/.303/.377 with a .680 OPS. Toronto ranks 18th in hits, last in runs, 28th in home runs and has tallied the second-fewest strikeouts. Ernie Clement leads the team with 125 hits this season, along with nine home runs and 38 RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the lone other player with over 100 hits, along with six home runs and 44 RBIs. Kazuma Okamoto leads the team with 24 home runs and 70 RBIs, while Andres Gimenez, George Springer, Nathan Lukes and Jesus Sanchez also play key roles.
After limping to a 9-19 start to the season, the Phillies have largely righted the ship and find themselves in the postseason hunt. They enter tonight with a 62-55 overall record, and would enter the postseason through a Wild Card seed if the season ended today. Philadelphia is looking to bounce back from the opening series loss to the Blue Jays, but it has won five of its past seven games. On the season overall, the Phillies have gone 47-70 to the run line, and the run total is 50-60-7 to the over/under.
Aaron Nola will be making his 24th start of the season for the Phillies tonight. The former All-Star has struggled this year, entering with a 3-9 record, a 5.55 ERA, a 1.442 WHIP, an MLB-worst 28 home runs allowed, and 121 strikeouts tallied across his 120 innings pitched. Nola has allowed three or more earned runs in five of his past seven starts, and he has conceded eight home runs in his past four starts.
The Phillies are slashing a collective .238/.307/.401 with a .708 OPS. They rank 20th in the league in hits, 16th in total runs, eighth in home runs and have struck out the ninth-most times in the league. Trea Turner leads the team with 117 hits on the season, along with 16 home runs and 46 RBIs. Brandon Marsh adds 114 hits of his own, along with 16 home runs and 51 RBIs, while Bryce Harper contributes 106 hits, 24 home runs and a team-high 70 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber is the lone other player with 100+ hits, and he leads the National League with 33 home runs. Luis Arraez has provided a nice stylistic contrast in their lineup and was the biggest addition at the trade deadline, while Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto also play key roles.
Blue Jays at Phillies pick, best bet
My lean is toward the Phillies getting revenge on their frustrating loss last night to even the series at one win apiece tonight. A two-run effort in the bottom of the ninth inning was not quite enough to complete the comeback, despite the team loading the bases with no outs. However, my best bet for this matchup is for the run total to go over the 9.5 line.
Both these pitchers were extremely reliable when at their peak, but they are past their athletic prime and paying the price for it. Scherzer is 42 years old, and his back-to-back encouraging starts are not quite enough to get me to buy back in. He has allowed at least one earned run in every start this season, and he has given up five or more earned runs in three of his past six starts. The eight-time All-Star never fully settled in last year, posting a 5.19 ERA across his 17 starts, and it is understandable for his production to slip a bit in the twilight years of his career. Expect the Phillies to be prepared to punish him.
On the other side of the pitching matchup, Nola has not left much reason for optimism on the season. He enters with a 5.55 ERA on the season, and he has allowed three or more earned runs in 15 of his 23 starts. Even while the Blue Jays are not major threats to hit home runs, Nola has allowed an MLB-worst 28 homers this year with eight allowed across his past four outings. His 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings is the third-lowest mark of his career, and teams are punishing him when he does leave the ball over the plate.
The run total finished at nine in last night’s game between these two teams, even while having a much stronger pitching matchup. Luis Arraez has provided a major spark in this Phillies lineup, and Philadelphia has scored 4+ runs in nine straight games, averaging 5.4 runs per game across this stretch. Expect it to be eager to jump all over Scherzer in this matchup to keep these trends continuing, as well as a bullpen that has shown some vulnerabilities as of late.
The run total has gone over in three consecutive home games for the Phillies, as well as the last five games the Blue Jays were underdogs. The scoring has started early for the Phillies as well, with a run registered in the first inning in six of their last seven matchups. Expect both sides to be eager to capitalize on the favorable pitching matchup and for the 9.5 run total to be too low given the context of this matchup.
Best bet: Run Total Over 9.5 (-109)
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