Taking place as part of tonight’s full 15-game MLB slate, the Cincinnati Reds will face off with the Washington Nationals. The series opened with a 5-3 win by the Nationals last night, and the Reds will look to even up the series tonight. Chase Burns and Andrew Alvarez will take the ball for their respective squads tonight.
Looking at the odds, the Reds enter as -140 favorites and hold +113 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nationals hold +131 odds of winning outright, with the run total set at 8.5.
Reds at Nationals prediction, preview
The Cincinnati Reds sit in fourth place in the National League Central with a 56-59 record on the season. They are 15.5 games back from the Brewers for the top spot in the division, but are five games back from earning a Wild Card seed. Cincinnati dropped the previous game against the Nationals, which snapped a four-game winning streak. On the season, the Reds have gone 60-55 to the run line, and the run total is 60-53-2 to the over/under.
Chase Burns will make his 22nd start of the season and is in the midst of a stellar year. The first-time All-Star enters with a 13-1 record, a 2.35 ERA, a 1.096 WHIP and 137 strikeouts tallied across 118.2 innings pitched. He has allowed one or fewer earned runs in three straight starts entering this matchup. Burns has faced off with this Nationals roster in 24 at-bats in his career, and he limited them to just four total hits, a .167 batting average and a .492 OPS.
Cincinnati is slashing a collective .230/.310/.400 with a .710 OPS. The Reds rank last in the league in hits, 26th in total runs, fifth in home runs and have tallied the third-most strikeouts. Sal Stewart has produced a team-high 111 hits, along with 25 home runs and 87 RBIs. Elly De La Cruz adds 105 hits of his own, 20 home runs and 54 RBIs. JJ Bleday adds 20 home runs and 47 RBIs, while Eugenio Suarez contributes 15 home runs and 41 RBIs of his own. Matt McLain, TJ Friedl and Tyler Stephenson also play key roles.
It has been a largely encouraging season by the Washington Nationals, but their hopes took a hit following the decision by the organization to become sellers at the trade deadline. They enter tonight with a 57-61 record, and they have slipped to fourth place in the National League East. Washington picked up a victory over this Reds team last night, but it is 2-8 across its past 10. On the season, the Nationals have gone 68-50 against the spread, and the run total is 63-49-6 to the over/under.
Andrew Alvarez will be on the mound for the Nationals, marking his ninth start of the season and 17th appearance overall. The 27-year-old enters with a 2-3 record, a 3.94 ERA, a 1.453 WHIP and 63 strikeouts tallied across his 64.0 innings pitched. Looking just at his numbers as a starter, Alvarez is posting a 4.10 ERA, with 17 earned runs allowed and 35 strikeouts across 37.1 innings pitched. He has never faced a member of this Reds lineup yet in his young career.
The Nationals offense has been an unexpected bright spot this season. Collectively, Washington is slashing .250/.327/.439 with a .765 OPS. It ranks third in the MLB in hits, first in runs, first in home runs and 15th in strikeouts. CJ Abrams leads the team with 123 hits, along with 28 home runs and an MLB-best 88 RBIs. James Wood adds 116 hits of his own, along with a team-high 30 home runs and 73 RBIs, but he will miss tonight’s game as he remains on the injured list. The absence of Luis Garcia Jr. has been felt since the decision to move him at the trade deadline in a deal with the Yankees, but Daylen Lile, Jacob Young, Keibert Ruiz and Dylan Crews each play notable roles.
Reds at Nationals pick, best bet
There are few pitchers in baseball having a better season than Chase Burns on the mound this year. The right-hander leads the MLB with a .929 win/loss percentage on the season. He holds a 13-1 record individually, and the Reds have gone 16-5 in games he has started. Burns has only allowed more than three earned runs in a matchup twice this year, and he has limited opponents to one or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 21 starts. He has allowed just two total earned runs across his past three starts.
Expect Burns to set the tone for Cincinnati tonight and provide a clear path to giving the team a chance to win. He has had success against this Nationals lineup in his career, limiting them to just four hits across the 24 at-bats he has faced them. Burns has tallied eight strikeouts across these opportunities and limited them to a .492 OPS.
In contrast, there are still plenty of questions about the outlook for Andrew Alvarez on the mound for the Nationals. He has made just 21 appearances at the MLB level, 13 total starts, and he has never faced a member of this Reds lineup in his career. The left-hander has had some encouraging flashes, but he is posting a 5.56 ERA across his past five outings with 15 walks and 14 earned runs in just 22.2 innings pitched. Washington’s bullpen is also producing the fourth-highest ERA this season, so the outlook does not get much cleaner if he is chased from the matchup early.
Even with Cincinnati’s offensive shortcomings in mind, Burns provides such a high floor for providing an opportunity to win, so expect this to be the difference in tonight’s matchup. The Reds’ offense has also performed well as of late, with 27 runs tallied across their past five games. Last night’s loss snapped a four-game winning streak, and expect them to be eager to start it back up against a Washington team that has lost eight of its past 10. It was an encouraging start to the year for the Nationals, but it feels the bottom is falling out on the season. Expect Burns to add another quality start to his resume and for the Reds’ bats to remain hot as they even up the series with a win tonight.
Best bet: Cincinatti Reds Moneyline (-140)
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