Last season, Matthew Stafford unexpectedly led the league with 46 passing touchdowns. This is not to say that Stafford wasn’t capable, as he threw for 41 touchdowns with Detroit back in 2011 and then duplicated the feat in his first season with the Rams in 2021. It’s just that he was 37 years old and had thrown 24 and 20 touchdowns the prior two seasons.
In 2024, Joe Burrow led the league with 43 passing touchdowns. While the efficiency was decent, it was more of a volume thing as Burrow led the league with 460 completions and 652 pass attempts, tied for the 20th-most in any season. The defense could continue being suspect while the Bengals offense has weapons galore.
I mention these two quarterbacks because DraftKings Sportsbook currently has them as the favorites to lead the NFL with the most regular season passing touchdowns.
Let’s break it down.
Burrow has been the Golden Child since winning the NCAA Championship and Heisman Trophy while at LSU. He was the number one overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and has arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the league – Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Chase Brown is also an explosive option out of the backfield.
The defense has been overhauled with a new coordinator in Al Golden and bolstered up front with the acquisitions of Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen. The linebacking unit is young while the secondary is #notgood. Will a simplified scheme with a jolt of pressure from the line mask the deficiencies? There are questions and uncertainty. If the defense is improved, then that could take away from Burrow’s dropbacks. On the flip side, if the run defense is poor, then opposing offenses could just ground-and-pound the Bengals into submission, limiting the time and number of possessions for Burrow. If the Bengals defense continues to stink and gives up quick scores, then Burrow could have a chance of replicating that magical 2024 season.
Which brings us to the most important variable for Burrow – health. Burrow only played eight games last season due to turf toe. He played only 10 games in 2020 and 2023 due to knee and wrist injuries. One cannot throw touchdowns if one is not on the field to begin with. And the offensive line has a huge part in keeping Burrow healthy. Unfortunately, the offensive line is projected to be offensive by many.
During the 2024 season, Burrow had a TD% rate of 6.6. Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson both finished with 41 touchdowns that season while posting a TD% of 7.2 and 8.6. In his career, Burrow has never exceeded 6.6 TD%. If the massive volume isn’t there for Burrow, it will likely be tough sledding to lead the league in passing touchdowns.
As for Stafford, he had a 7.7 TD%, a career-high. In 2021, during his first season in Los Angeles, Stafford had a 6.8 TD% en route to 41 touchdowns. In his 17-year career, Stafford eclipsed the 6 TD% mark only five times. Last season was truly magical, but it could be difficult to replicate.
For starters, since 2011, there have only been 25 instances in which a quarterback posted at least a 7 TD%. No player hit the mark in 2022. Freaking Aaron Rodgers accomplished the feat five times and was the only player to lead the league in TD% in back-to-back seasons, doing it twice.
Last season, Stafford attempted 45 passes within 10 yards of the opposition’s end zone, completing 23 for 16 touchdowns. The acquisition of Davante Adams certainly helped here, but since Stafford joined the Rams, he’s thrown 16, 7, 13, 5 and 14 touchdowns from that distance, so it’s a highly variable stat. What if he completes only 40% of those passes instead of the 51.1% last season and the touchdown number ends at 7 instead of 16? What if the Rams punch it in more on the ground?
Another variable to consider is that this Rams defense could be superb even without Aaron Donald. If so, there could be fewer shootouts and the run game could take more precedence, which would lower the volume and opportunities for Stafford to throw touchdowns.
I do like Dak Prescott at +750 and Jared Goff at +950 as candidates. Prescott has great weapons in the pass game and the defense, while likely improved from the putridness of last season, still won’t be great. In addition, Prescott had the third-most attempts within 10 yards of the opponent’s end zone last season. Goff led the league with 51 attempts from that distance and posted a 6.9 TD% two seasons ago while finishing with 37 touchdowns. He also has a bevy of weapons in the passing game. But all four of the above options are chalk. I want something with some juice and….
Lamar Jackson at +3000. That looks mighty juicy to me. There’s tons of uncertainty for sure, as Declan Doyle is a rookie offensive coordinator, but it sounds like there will be more spread formations, a faster tempo and higher frequency of downfield shots. And Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman are now slouches as pass catchers.
Here’s the thing. In his eight-year career, Jackson has thrown for 36 and 41 touchdowns while posting TD% rates of 9 and 8.6! He’s been there, he’s done that.
