There is battle of two Americans at ATP Montreal at 8:10 p.m. ET on Friday. The World No. 19 Learner Tien will take on the World No. 21 Tommy Paul.
Here is my full preview of the Round of 32 match between Tommy Paul vs. Learner Tien at the 2026 Canadian Open.
Tommy Paul vs. Learner Tien Preview, Prediction
This is a tale of two players in similar situations this season, but in very different places in their careers. At 29 years old, Tommy Paul is trying to prove he still has some great years left in him. Last summer, Paul got as high as No. 8 in the world, the best ranking of his career. However, he has dropped to No. 21 in the world after a disappointing 2026 season. That being said, he can still get hot on the hardcourt ahead of the US Open.
Paul’s fellow American, Learner Tien, has also not had a bit of an up-and-down season. The 20-year-old did win a title earlier this year in Switzerland and reached his career-high ranking of No. 15 in the world before dropping to his current ranking of No. 19. However, he has been outshone by his fellow next-generation phenoms like Joao Fonseca and Rafael Jodar.
Both of these players arrived in Canada in poor form. They are also both desperate to get into better form before their home major in New York in a few weeks. Paul and Tien both had disappointingly early exits at Wimbledon, with neither of them making it past the third round. Both players were then shockingly knocked out of the Citi Open in their opening matches in the Round of 32 to start this hardcourt swing.
Now, one of these two Americans will get a nice win in this Round of 32 matchup and could get some momentum going in Canada. While the other will face another disappointingly early exit with only one more tournament to be played before the US Open.
Tommy Paul vs. Learner Tien Picks, Best Bets
This match really could go either way as both players are looking to find their form. However, my best bet is on Learner Tien to pull off the upset. He is +150 on the Moneyline, while this match really seems more like a coin flip. Therefore, the value on Tien is hard to pass up, rather than laying the heavy juice at -190 for Tommy Paul.
Neither player inspires much confidence with their play at the moment, but Tien seems to still have levels of his game that he can unlock. This could be a big US Open for Tien if he is able to find his form over the next couple of weeks, and I’ll back him to find that form here in Montreal against his compatriot Tommy Paul.
