Looking for today’s Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets betting splits? Below you’ll find the latest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline, Run Line and total betting percentages, plus where the public and sharp money are landing before first pitch.
Pirates vs. Mets Odds
| Market | Pirates (Home) | Mets (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -129 | +120 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+148) | +1.5 (-179) |
| Total | Over 8 (-118) | Under 8 (-102) |
Pittsburgh is a -129 home favorite with the total set at O/U 8. Carmen Mlodzinski takes the mound for the Pirates against Zac Thornton, with both starters carrying sub-3.20 ERAs heading into a matchup at PNC Park.
DraftKings Betting Splits
| Market | Side | Bets % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pirates | 58% | 61% |
| Moneyline | Mets | 42% | 39% |
| Run Line | Pirates -1.5 | 18% | 33% |
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | 82% | 67% |
| Total | Over 8 | 41% | 4% |
| Total | Under 8 | 59% | 96% |
Public Betting Trends
The Moneyline market is aligned, with 58% of tickets and 61% of handle both landing on Pittsburgh, suggesting no sharp-public divergence on the favorite. The total market tells a different story: while 59% of tickets lean Under, a staggering 96% of the handle backs Under 8, indicating heavy sharp action on the low side against a Mets offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in OPS (.692).
Pirates vs. Mets Stats
Starting Pitcher Stats
| Stat | Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) | Zac Thornton (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| ERA | 3.15 | 2.88 |
| WHIP | 1.315 | 1.049 |
| FIP | 3.50 | 3.79 |
| xFIP | 4.29 | 4.26 |
| WAR | 1.49 | 0.55 |
| K% | 18.9% | 17.9% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 7.5% |
| HR/9 | 0.67 | 0.79 |
Team Pitching Stats
| Stat | Pirates | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 4.31 | 4.09 |
| WHIP | 1.325 | 1.297 |
| K/9 | 9.37 | 9.13 |
| K/BB | 2.55 | 2.57 |
| OBA | .241 | .238 |
Team Batting Stats
| Stat | Pirates | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| AVG | .256 | .234 |
| OBP | .333 | .305 |
| SLG | .412 | .387 |
| ISO | .156 | .153 |
| OPS | .745 | .692 |
| K% | 24.3% | 22.7% |
Key Matchup Numbers
- Pitching surface vs. peripherals: Both starters carry sparkling ERAs (Mlodzinski 3.15, Thornton 2.88), but their xFIPs (4.29 and 4.26) suggest significant regression risk. Thornton’s 1.049 WHIP is elite, though his 17.9% K rate limits his ability to pitch out of trouble. Mlodzinski’s strikeouts prop is set at O/U 3.5 (+121/-154), reflecting that low whiff rate.
- Offensive disparity: Pittsburgh’s .745 OPS dwarfs New York’s .692. The Pirates carry a .256 team average with a .333 OBP, while the Mets rank among the weakest offenses in MLB at .234/.305. That 53-point OPS gap is substantial, particularly at hitter-friendly PNC Park.
- Home split leaders: Bryan Reynolds leads Pittsburgh at home with a .305 AVG and .957 OPS, including 7 home runs in 197 at-bats. Esmerlyn Valdez adds a .290 AVG and 1.119 OPS with 9 home runs in just 69 at-bats at PNC Park. Reynolds Total Bases is set at 2+ (+115).
- Away split leaders: Luis Torrens paces the Mets on the road with a .277 AVG and .821 OPS (4 HR). Carson Benge (.256 AVG, .765 OPS, 10 HR in 211 AB) carries the most power production. Benge’s hits prop sits at 1+ (-221).
- Key absences: Pittsburgh is missing Oneil Cruz (hand, D60) and Mitch Keller (arm, D60) from its core. New York is without Juan Soto (calf, D10) and Mark Vientos (hand, D10), removing two of its most impactful bats from an already anemic lineup.
- Momentum context: The Mets carry a three-game winning streak and a 6-4 mark over their last 10. Pittsburgh has dropped three straight (2-8 last 10), but the 29-28 home record suggests it plays better at PNC Park than its road struggles indicate.
DraftKings Player Props
- Carmen Mlodzinski Strikeouts Thrown O/U 3.5 (+121 / -154)
- Zac Thornton Strikeouts Thrown O/U 4.5 (-110 / -116)
- Bryan Reynolds Total Bases 2+ (+115)
- Nick Gonzales Total Bases O/U 1.5 (+122 / -163)
- Brandon Lowe Total Bases O/U 1.5 (+116 / -155)
- Francisco Lindor Hits 1+ (-238)
- Carson Benge Hits 1+ (-221)
- Esmerlyn Valdez Hits + Runs + RBIs O/U 1.5 (-116 / -114)
- Bo Bichette Hits + Runs + RBIs O/U 1.5 (-114 / -117)
DraftKings Featured Parlays
Favorites Flex (+1607)
Back Friday’s home favorites to win outright:
- PHI Phillies to Win (vs TOR)
- PIT Pirates to Win (vs NYM)
- NY Yankees to Win (vs ATL)
- BOS Red Sox to Win (vs ATH)
- MIA Marlins to Win (vs LAA)
- CLE Guardians to Win (@ CWS)
Base Chaos (+2175)
Bet these stars to tally 2+ total bases on Friday:
- Brandon Lowe 2+ Total Bases
- Francisco Lindor 2+ Total Bases
- Gunnar Henderson 2+ Total Bases
- Mickey Moniak 2+ Total Bases
The Producers (+1168)
Season-long production leaders to combine for 2+ hits, runs, and RBIs:
- B. Reynolds 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- B. Bichette 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- H. Goodman 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- E. Duran 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
Betting Splits Summary
| Metric | Pirates / Over | Mets / Under |
|---|---|---|
| ML Handle | 61% | 39% |
| ML Bets | 58% | 42% |
| RL Handle | 33% | 67% |
| RL Bets | 18% | 82% |
| Total Handle | 4% | 96% |
| Total Bets | 41% | 59% |
FAQs
What are MLB betting splits?
Betting splits show how the public is wagering on a game by breaking down the percentage of total bets (tickets) and total money (handle) on each side of a market. They help identify which side recreational bettors favor versus where larger, potentially sharper money is landing.
What is the difference between bets and handle?
Bets refer to the number of individual tickets placed, while handle represents the total dollar amount wagered. A side with low bet percentage but high handle percentage suggests fewer bettors placing larger wagers, often interpreted as sharp or professional action.
How do betting splits identify sharp money?
Sharp money refers to wagers placed by professional or highly informed bettors. It is typically identified through handle-vs-bet discrepancies: when a side draws a disproportionate share of money relative to its ticket count, sharps are likely involved.
Should you follow betting splits?
Splits are one tool among many. They are most useful when a clear divergence exists between public tickets and money handle, suggesting professional disagreement with the recreational consensus. They work best combined with line movement analysis and matchup context.
How often do DraftKings betting splits update?
DraftKings betting splits update approximately every two minutes, providing near real-time insight into how the market is moving as game time approaches.
What is the best bet for Pirates vs. Mets?
Sharp money strongly supports the Under 8 in this matchup. Only 59% of public tickets favor the Under, yet 96% of the handle lands on that side, a 37-point divergence that represents the clearest sharp signal in this game. Both starters carry sub-3.20 ERAs, the Mets offense posts a league-bottom .692 OPS, and New York is missing Juan Soto and Mark Vientos from its lineup. Pittsburgh at -129 on the Moneyline also has public and sharp alignment (61% handle), backed by a .745 OPS offense facing a pitcher whose 4.26 xFIP suggests vulnerability.