Helping to open up tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, the Phoenix Mercury will challenge the Connecticut Sun.
This is the third and final matchup between these two teams this season. The two have split these two games to this point, with the Connecticut Sun producing a 96-83 win in the first matchup before the Phoenix Mercury got back in the win column with a 72-63 win in the second half of these back-to-back games.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Mercury enter as 5.5-point favorites and hold -230 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun hold +190 odds of getting the win, with the game total set at 173.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mercury at Sun matchup.
Mercury at Sun Preview
The Phoenix Mercury sit in 12th place in the WNBA standings with a 12-20 record, but have received a jolt of life from the recent addition of Kelsey Plum. They enter this matchup looking to bounce back from a loss to the Atlanta Dream, but have won four of their past six. On the season overall, the Mercury have gone 15-17 against the spread, and the game total is 16-16 to the over/under.
Kahleah Copper headlines the production for the Mercury, averaging 21.0 points and 3.6 rebounds per game. Plum joins her as a dynamic backcourt partner, posting averages of 19.5 points and four assists across her first two games in Phoenix. Alyssa Thomas stuffs the stat sheet with overall averages of 15.1 points, 8.4 assists and 7.3 rebounds, largely setting the tone for this Phoenix team. Jovana Nogic and DeWanna Bonner each also average in double figures, while Lexi Held, Natasha Mack, and Monique Akoa Makani also play notable roles.
The Mercury are scoring 84.2 points per game this season, which ranks 11th in the WNBA. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, 10th in field-goal percentage and 10th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87.6 points per game against Phoenix, which ranks ninth in the league. The Mercury also ranks 12th in defensive rating, 10th in opponent field-goal percentage and 15th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Connecticut Sun have slipped to 7-23 on the season, which slots them at 14th place in the WNBA standings. They are looking to snap a five-game losing streak, with their last victory coming against this Mercury team on July 17th. On the season overall, the Sun have gone 14-16 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 17 of their 30 games played.
Brittney Griner headlines the production for the Sun, posting averages of 14.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Griner is listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup with a knee injury. Leila Lacan adds 12.3 points and a team-high 4.4 assists, while Aneesah Morrow contributes 11.6 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Diamond Miller and Charlisse Leger-Walker also play key roles. Raegan Beers is the lone other player on the injury report and will miss tonight due to a concussion.
As a team, the Sun are scoring 79.8 points per game, which ranks 15th in the league. Connecticut also ranks 15th in offensive rating, 14th in field-goal percentage and 14th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87.3 points per game against the Sun, which ranks seventh in the league. They also rank eighth in defensive rating, 11th in opponent field-goal percentage and 13th in opponent three-point percentage.
Mercury at Sun Pick, Best Bet
The gap in talent has only widened since these two teams faced off, spearheaded by the Mercury’s decision to trade for Kelsey Plum. It was a disappointing effort from Phoenix in the previous loss to Connecticut. The Sun led from wire-to-wire and extended the lead to as many as 20. The Mercury shot just 27% from beyond the three-point arc and struggled with their turnovers in the matchup.
Expect the dynamic backcourt of Kahleah Copper and Kelsey Plum to be too much in this matchup. Plum was a difference-maker in her debut, knocking down a go-ahead three-pointer in the final minutes to lift them over the Chicago Sky. Phoenix was unable to get the victory over the Atlanta Dream in the previous game, with the rebounding production being the difference. Atlanta out-rebounded Phoenix 38-28 in the matchup, and the Dream broke the game open in the third quarter.
Don’t expect the Sun to put forth as dominant a performance on the boards tonight, and for the Mercury to have no trouble scoring at a rate they cannot match. Connecticut ranks dead last in points per game and offensive rating, which is problematic against a backcourt with this level of scoring punch. There will be some growing pains as the Mercury learn to integrate Plum and the entire team gets on the same page. While these were evident in the previous game, this lackluster defensive matchup should provide a clear path to a strong offensive performance.
Connecticut is limping to the finish line on the season, and it feels as if they need everything to break right to get a win. The Sun have failed to cover the spread in each of their past five losses, and the favorite has covered the spread in the past eight games Connecticut has played. Expect the Mercury to push the scoring to a rate that the Sun cannot match and for the final score to finish beyond the 5.5-point spread.
