Helping to open up tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, the Atlanta Dream will take on the Washington Mystics.
These teams have faced off twice this season, with each team notching one victory to this point. During their first matchup, the Dream put forth a convincing 109-77 win. Washington got back on top in their most recent matchup, winning 81-76.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Atlanta Dream enter as 5.5-point favorites and hold -218 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mystics hold +180 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 170.5.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Dream vs. Mystics matchup.
Dream at Mystics Preview
The Atlanta Dream have climbed to fourth place in the WNBA standings with a 19-11 record on the year. They enter this matchup coming off a victory over the Phoenix Mercury in the previous game, and have won six of their past seven. On the season, the Dream have gone 11-19 against the spread, and they are 17-13 to the over.
Allisha Gray leads the team with 18.8 points per game. Rhyne Howard adds 17.2 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists of her own, while Angel Reese contributes 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game. Jordin Canada is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.3 points and a team-high 7.6 assists. Naz Hillmon and Brionna Jones each add 9.2 points per game. Te-Hina Paopao is the lone player expected to miss tonight’s game with a right leg injury.
As a team, the Dream rank sixth in the league in scoring, averaging 89.5 points per game. They also rank sixth in offensive rating, 11th in field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 85.9 points per game against the Dream, the fifth-lowest mark in the WNBA. Atlanta also ranks fourth in defensive rating, 15th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 14th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Washington Mystics enter with a 17-12 record on the season, which slots them in eighth place in the WNBA standings. They enter this matchup looking to extend a five-game winning streak. On the season, Washington has gone 18-11 against the spread, and 15-14 to the over.
Sonia Citron headlines the production for the Mystics, averaging 17.1 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. Washington leans on their interior production at a high rate with both Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen playing key roles. Austin is averaging 15.9 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, while Iriafen pitches in 15.1 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Michaela Onyenwere contributes 9.8 points per game of her own, while Cotie McMahon and Georgia Amoore also play key roles.
The Mystics are averaging 81.7 points per game, which ranks 14th in the WNBA in scoring. They also rank 13th in offensive rating, 12th in field goal percentage, and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, Washington has had more success, holding opponents to the second-fewest points per game at 83.2 per contest. The Mystics also rank third in defensive rating, second in opponent field goal percentage, and third in opponent three-point percentage.
Dream at Mystics Pick, Best Bet
The Dream asserted themselves in the first matchup between these two sides, winning 109-77. Atlanta extended the lead to as many as 35 and held control for 91% of the matchup. The Dream out rebounded the Mystics 42-26, and shot a season-best 52% from beyond the three-point arc.
Washington got back in the win column in the second matchup by a score of 81-76. The Mystics shot an impressive 55% from the field and 56% from beyond the arc, marking their second-best field goal percentage and best three-point percentage of any matchup this season. Washington won the rebounding battle by five. Even still, the Dream led for 76% of the game, and it took the Mystics winning the fourth quarter 25-16 to officially secure the comeback win.
It has been an encouraging stretch for the Mystics, who will look to extend their five-game winning streak. They are also 12-5 across their past 17, and have covered the spread in six consecutive games.
Atlanta has been impressive this season overall. But Washington has the front court talent to limit Angel Reese’s production on the interior. Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafan have the size to make it difficult for Reese to generate her typical collection of put-back opportunities and second-chance points. It took some time for Washington to find their identity on the season, but they are playing at an impressive level of late and expect this to carry over into tonight.
Washington has covered the spread in 17 of its 29 games played this season, but it is 7-3 ATS across its past 10. Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in 19 of its 30 games played, and are 2-8 across its past 10. I am buying into this recent streak of form from the Mystics and backing them to cover the +5.5 point spread tonight. For the sake of the article, I am locking in the spread, but Washington should absolutely be viewed as live underdogs tonight.
