Do you want to know the difference between the American League and the National League in 2026? Look no further than this matchup.
Despite being seven games below .500 — and sort of operating as at least partial sellers at the deadline — the Blue Jays are just three games back of the final Wild Card spot in the AL. Conversely, the Cubs are 66-49, yet they’re 5.5 games back in their division. It just doesn’t seem fair.
Let’s preview this make-up matinee clash at Wrigley and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Cubs prediction, preview
The main draw for this contest is Dylan Cease, who happens to be reigning AL Pitcher of the Month. How does one get awarded with such an honor? Well, taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning on July 8 helps. So does throwing a complete game one-hitter against the red-hot Red Sox back on July 25. All told, Cease threw 36.0 innings across July, maintaining a 1.00 ERA and a 2.18 FIP with a 34.8% strikeout rate. Who knows? If he keeps pitching like this, there may be bigger trophies that Cease gets to boast when the season is said and done with. It’s only the first year of Cease’s $210 million deal, but as of this second, it feels like the Blue Jays did well on the free agent market.
That said, the Cubs will be a very interesting test for the All-Star RHP. Not only does Chicago sit top-five in baseball in major offensive categories like ISO (.168), wOBA (.333) and wRC+ (112), but the team leads the league in walk rate (10.9%). If Cease has an Achilles heel, it’s his propensity to issue free passes. He’s walked at least three opponents in three of his last four starts, and he’s walked as many as five opponents in 2026. If this outing goes sideways for Cease, it’ll almost certainly be because he lost his feel for the strike zone — though there’s always an outside chance that the wind at Wrigley played a factor, as well.
On the other end of this pitching matchup is David Peterson, who is on quite the run since surrendering a 10-spot in his second start as a member of the Cubs. An absurdly low strand rate at the time of his trade from the Mets always suggested that better days were on the horizon for the left-hander, though I’m not sure even the most optimistic person envisioned a 1.52 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP since July 9. Yes, Peterson’s drawn a few soft matchups in this span, as the slumping Cardinals and Yankees put up little fight against the veteran southpaw, yet it’s not like Toronto is an offensive powerhouse in any right. In fact, the Jays rank dead-last in MLB in wOBA (.299) and expected wOBA (.295). The good times should keep on rolling for Peterson.
Blue Jays vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Cubs ML (+104)
This seems like a good spot to take a chance on the home dog. While Dylan Cease is an imposing presence on the mound, Toronto has one of the worst lineups in baseball — if not the worst. The team’s bullpen is also in a state of disarray following Trey Yesavage’s injury on Tuesday. I’ll side with the better club at plus-money.
