The final wild card spot in the National League is up for grabs. Currently, it’s the Diamondbacks (61-54) in possession of the Senior Circuit’s final playoff spot. Hot on their tails are the Padres (59-56), one of the more aggressive buyers during August 3rd’s trade deadline. It was Arizona that came out on top last night en route to a 10-4 win. Which of these division rivals will clinch a series victory on Thursday?
This is a pick ’em, with both the Padres and Diamondbacks priced at -104 on the moneyline; the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between San Diego and Arizona on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet today
- Padres ML (-104): San Diego has gotten into a groove at the plate, which doesn’t bode well for any rookie hurler. Although the Diamondbacks have hit Buehler hard in the past, their lack of hitting vs. righties is cause for concern. In this 50/50 matchup, the visitors offer more value.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
San Diego’s rotation depth remains a weakness, albeit less so after some deadline wheeling and dealing. Walker Buehler is the proof; once an ace in Los Angeles, the righty is far removed from his prime. That’s not to say the former All-Star is incapable of spinning a gem. Still, his statistics are lackluster at best. Through 104.1 innings of work (22 starts), the veteran has notched a 5.18 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 92 strikeouts (7.9 K/9). Buehler ranks inside the 33rd percentile or worse in xERA (4.45), chase rate (26.2%), whiff rate (21.1%) and strikeout rate (20.2%), just to name a few categories. With that being said, he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his previous three starts.
This is a dangerous environment for any opposing pitcher, especially one that’s struggling such as Buehler. Since July 1st, the Diamondbacks are tied for the second-most runs in baseball (164). Their lineup is led by Corbin Carroll; the outfielder is slashing .245/.340/.470 with 16 homers and 16 stolen bases. However, the Snakes possesses remarkable depth. Seven different members of the active roster (min. 100+ plate appearances) have a wRC+ above 100. If there’s any downside here, Arizona has posted the second-worst OPS this season against right-handed pitching (.682). However, the D-backs hammered Buehler for seven runs in five innings back on July 6th.
Toeing the slab for the home team will be Kohl Drake. The rookie will be making just his fourth career start, so there’s not much of a resume here. During his three appearances prior, Drake recorded a 4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 12 strikeouts (8.3 K/9). He was far worse during his time at Triple-A Reno (6.92 ERA), although it’s tough to judge any numbers in the hitter-happy Pacific Coast League. Regardless, the 25-year-old isn’t someone Diamondback fans should feel great about tonight. Should manager Torey Lovullo pull the youngster early, it’ll be up to a middling group of relievers to hold San Diego in check. Arizona’s 4.22 bullpen ERA is good enough for 18th in the majors.
On paper, this doesn’t look like a formidable matchup for Drake and company. The Padres are 21st in runs scored (481), 20th in home runs (122) and 24th in OPS (.694). However, that ignores the recent strides made by this group. Since the start of July, San Diego has the seventh-most runs scored (156) and seventh-best OPS (.761) in baseball. To boot, the Friars are averaging the 12th-most runs per game on the road (4.62). Big bats Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado have turned things around at the plate. All three have an OPS above .800 over the last month. Fellow masher Ty France has dominated during that time as well (1.053 OPS).
Best Bet: Padres ML (-104)
You’d be forgiven for expressing some concern when it comes to Buehler’s chances tonight. However, Arizona’s struggles against right-handed pitching offer a glimmer of hope for the veteran. The biggest draw for Padres bettors is a red-hot lineup going up against an unproven hurler in Drake. San Diego has more than enough firepower to tee off on the rookie this evening.
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