There might not be a more lopsided pitching matchup this season than what’s going down in Washington on Thursday night.
On the one side, you have Cy Young hopeful Cristopher Sanchez. On the other, you have innings eater Miles Mikolas, who was washed up more than two years ago, yet is still taking the mound every five days. This is the beauty of baseball, my friends.
Can the Phillies get back on track and secure this four-game series? Let’s preview this divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Nationals prediction, preview
I want to be very clear about this. In no way am I saying that Cristopher Sanchez has been bad lately, he just hasn’t quite looked like himself. Since the beginning of July, the left-hander owns a 5.20 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP, though a hilariously inflated .413 BABIP certainly isn’t helping matters. Even in Sanchez’s last outing against the Orioles on Saturday, the 29-year-old walked five batters across his six scoreless innings. Again, Sanchez is an absolute stud. For the season as a whole, he’s maintained a 2.61 ERA and a 2.62 FIP. It’s just he’s been a little rough around the edges the past month or so. Could a Nationals team that ranks first in ISO versus southpaws (.181) take advantage of those struggles?
Washington’s bats are red-hot in general. The club sits first in ISO (.207), third in wOBA (.349) and fifth in wRC+ (120) since the All-Star break. That said, the team shipped Luis Garcia Jr. to the Yankees at the deadline and All-Star James Wood went on the IL with a strained oblique earlier this week. CJ Abrams is still cooking, and former second-overall pick Dylan Crews is finally showing a pulse at the MLB level, but you’d have to think there’s only so many losses that this roster can sustain.
That’s an issue, because if Washington isn’t scoring runs in bunches, it isn’t going to be winning many games behind its pitching staff. No man is a better example of that rule than Miles Mikolas, who comes into Thursday’s action in possession of a 5.67 ERA and a 5.84 FIP over 108.0 innings of work. The soon-to-be 38-year-old was washed a couple of years ago, yet he signed a $2.25 million contract this winter to eat up innings for the Nationals. There are worse things one could be doing with their time, I guess. Mikolas was never a strikeout artist, but he’s taken the inability to miss bats to a whole new level in 2026. To wit, Mikolas sports first percentile marks in both strikeout rate (11.9%) and whiff rate (14.7%). That should be music to the ears of Kyle Schwarber, who is 0-for-15 in the month with 10 strikeouts. Woof.
Phillies vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (-157)
There’s no way I’m taking the Phillies on the moneyline at -330, so the run line will have to do. Among the 89 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings this season, Sanchez ranks fifth in FIP (2.62). Mikolas ranks 88th (5.84). That’s all you really know to see why Philadelphia has the massive advantage on Thursday.
Strong Lean: Bryce Harper Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+100)
Harper owns an .989 OPS and a 163 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Not surprisingly, he’s also 9-for-26 (.346) in his career versus Mikolas with a pair of home runs and a 1.024 OPS. BvP numbers aren’t everything, but they match the larger trends at play in this matchup.
