Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s miniature evening slate: Kyle Schwarber and Manny Machado.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | +216 | Schwarber doesn’t even have a hit in August, as he’s 0-for-15 with 10 strikeouts since Saturday. However, if you had to hand pick a pitcher for Schwarber to “get right” against, it would be Miles Mikolas. The 37-year-old comes into tonight’s start in possession of first percentile marks in both strikeout rate (11.9%) and whiff rate (14.7%). Mikolas is also surrendering a whopping 2.17 opponent home runs per nine. |
| Manny Machado | +351 | In three starts and 13.0 innings of work, Kohl Drake has already conceded three long balls. More concerningly, he’s also given up a 15.0% barrel rate and a 52.5% opponent hard hit rate to go along with a staggering 57.5% fly ball rate. Yikes. Machado leads all Padres players with 23 homers this season. He’s also directly on the heels of his best month of 2026, with a .260 ISO and a 151 wRC+ in July. He should thrive in this opposite-hand matchup. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Run (+216)
You want to know what it takes for Schwarber’s home run odds to get above 2/1? How about a 14-game streak without a long ball? That’ll do it. Heck, Schwarber doesn’t even have a hit in August, as he’s 0-for-15 with 10 strikeouts since Saturday. Still, this is a man who leads all NL players with 33 home runs in 2026. He’s got a 98th percentile barrel rate (17.4%) and 96th percentile average exit velocity (93.3). Once those batted ball events start coming back around, one is going to leave the yard, and that’s where tonight’s opponent being Miles Mikolas comes into play. The 37-year-old RHP comes into Thursday’s start in possession of first percentile marks in both strikeout rate (11.9%) and whiff rate (14.7%). He simply can not miss bats. It doesn’t hurt that Mikolas is surrendering a whopping 2.17 opponent home runs per nine, either. If you had to hand pick a pitcher for Schwarber to “get right” against, it would be Mikolas.
Manny Machado 1+ Home Run (+351)
Doesn’t it sometimes feel like the Diamondbacks are making up pitching prospects? What is a Kohl Drake and where did it comes from? Well, I’ll tell you what Drake has at least been at the MLB level: A home run machine. In three starts and 13.0 innings of work, the left-hander has already conceded three long balls. More concerningly, he’s also given up a 15.0% barrel rate and a 52.5% opponent hard hit rate to go along with a staggering 57.5% fly ball rate. If you didn’t know the mathematic equation for home runs before, you do now. Meanwhile, Machado leads all Padres players with 23 homers this season. He’s also directly on the heels of his best month of 2026, with a .260 ISO and a 151 wRC+ in July. He should thrive in this opposite-hand matchup.
