For a franchise that has dominated over the past decade, last season was a shock for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and company only managed to win six games, capped off by the quarterback’s season-ending injury in Week 15. Still, sleep on Kansas City at your own risk. The front office was aggressive during the offseason, bringing aboard Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III and two first-round draft picks. Still, in the ever-changing NFL, is that enough for KC to regain title contender status?
Below is my pick and prediction for Kansas City’s 2026-27 regular season, including a win total bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chiefs win total pick for NFL regular season
It’s a bit shocking, but Kansas City’s offense only ranked 20th last season in yards per game (320.6). Granted, Mahomes’ late-season injury didn’t help those numbers. Regardless, this was a middle of the road offense by almost every metric when the future Hall of Famer was active. General manager Brett Veach was aggressive in bolstering this unit, bringing aboard Walker III to man the backfield. For years, the Chiefs have been content to operate with a committee approach at running back. Giving this group a legitimate game-changer at the position could make things far more difficult for opposing defenses. There are some questions on the outside, where embattled wideout Rashee Rice leads an otherwise middling core of receivers. However, if anyone can turn a no-name into a star, it’s Mahomes. Tight end Travis Kelce will return for his 14th season with the franchise.
Lost in the shuffle of a sputtering offense was the remarkable work done on defense. Kansas City ranked sixth in points allowed per game (19.3) and tenth in yards allowed per game (301.5). With that being said, the team did lose some firepower. All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie has joined the Rams, while hard-hitting linebacker Leo Chenal signed with Washington. Fortunately, Veach gave the defense a major influx of talent in the offseason. Sixth overall pick Mansoor Delane will take over McDuffie’s role on the outside. Defensive tackle Peter Woods could form a dangerous duo alongside superstar Chris Jones. Former Ravens safety Alohi Gillman will aim to provide stability in the secondary. Even if this group isn’t quite as effective, they don’t need to be great. Improvement on the other side of the ball should make up for any mild defensive drop-off. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is among the NFL’s best; his guys should hold their own.
Despite their third-place finish, a gauntlet awaits the Chiefs in 2026. Their strength of schedule is fifth-hardest in football according to last season’s winning percentage (.536). Of particular note, six games (starting on Thanksgiving) against some of the NFL’s best. Kansas City will take on the Bills, Rams, Bengals, Patriots, 49ers and Chargers in consecutive weeks. Still, this battle-tested squad is more than capable of emerging from that stretch with a winning record. Lesser opponents such as the Cardinals, Dolphins, Jets and Raiders (twice) should help as well.
Best Bet: Chiefs over 10.5 regular season wins (+115)
Will the public be all over the over (no pun intended)? You can count on it. However, it’s easy to see why. An offense that was already due for positive regression added the best available running back in free agency. Improved health and a track record of stingy, bend but don’t break defense gives Kansas City a solid foundation. Even if you account for a few slip-ups against fellow contenders, it’s difficult to envision the Chiefs losing more than six games. Back the over at plus money.
