Looking for today’s Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates betting splits and odds? Below you’ll find the latest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline, Run Line and total betting percentages, plus where the public and sharp money are landing before first pitch.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds
| Market | Brewers (Home) | Pirates (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -124 | +116 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+158) | +1.5 (-193) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-114) | Under 7.5 (-105) |
Milwaukee is a -124 Moneyline favorite at home with the total set at O/U 7.5. Dustin May toes the rubber for the Brewers against Braxton Ashcraft, with the tight line reflecting competitive pitching matchups on both sides.
DraftKings Betting Splits
| Market | Side | Bets % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brewers | 67% | 28% |
| Moneyline | Pirates | 33% | 72% |
| Run Line | Brewers -1.5 | 57% | 1% |
| Run Line | Pirates +1.5 | 43% | 99% |
| Total | Over 7.5 | 87% | 80% |
| Total | Under 7.5 | 13% | 20% |
Public Betting Trends
The Moneyline reveals a classic sharp-vs-public split: 67% of tickets back Milwaukee, but 72% of handle sits on Pittsburgh at +116, indicating large wagers from sharper bettors on the underdog. The Run Line is even more extreme, with 99% of the handle on Pirates +1.5 despite only 43% of tickets, while the total is a public-and-sharp consensus with 87% of bets and 80% of handle backing the Over 7.5.
Brewers vs. Pirates Stats
Starting Pitcher Stats
| Stat | Dustin May (MIL) | Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-7 | 11-4 |
| ERA | 4.38 | 3.96 |
| WHIP | 1.284 | 1.162 |
| FIP | 3.14 | 3.53 |
| xFIP | 3.88 | 3.27 |
| WAR | 2.59 | 2.75 |
| K% | 23.1% | 26.6% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.9% |
| HR/9 | 0.58 | 1.20 |
| Starts | 21 | 22 |
| QS | 10 | 10 |
Team Pitching Stats
| Stat | Brewers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 3.46 | 4.30 |
| WHIP | 1.155 | 1.326 |
| K/9 | 9.89 | 9.35 |
| K/BB | 3.14 | 2.54 |
| OBA | .218 | .241 |
Team Batting Stats
| Stat | Brewers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| AVG | .253 | .256 |
| OBP | .336 | .333 |
| SLG | .397 | .413 |
| ISO | .144 | .157 |
| OPS | .733 | .746 |
| K% | 21.2% | 24.3% |
Key Matchup Numbers
- Sharp money on Pittsburgh: The 72% Moneyline handle on the Pirates at +116, against 67% of public tickets on Milwaukee, represents a 39-point handle-vs-bet divergence. Professional bettors are backing the underdog aggressively in this spot.
- Ashcraft edge: Braxton Ashcraft owns the better ERA (3.96 vs. 4.38), WHIP (1.162 vs. 1.284), and xFIP (3.27 vs. 3.88) in this matchup. His 26.6% K rate and 5.9% walk rate give him elite control, and his 11-4 record reflects consistent run support.
- May’s FIP discount: Dustin May’s 4.38 ERA overstates his struggles. His 3.14 FIP and 0.58 HR/9 suggest he has been unlucky on balls in play, though his 7.6% walk rate creates extra baserunners against a Pittsburgh lineup that posts a .333 OBP.
- Home split leaders: Jackson Chourio leads Milwaukee at home with a .845 OPS and 9 home runs in 161 at-bats. Brice Turang adds a .858 OPS with 7 HR, giving the Brewers middle-order power at American Family Field.
- Road split leaders: Brandon Lowe paces Pittsburgh on the road with a .820 OPS and 12 home runs in 207 at-bats. Endy Rodriguez carries a .903 OPS away from home with 6 HR in 83 at-bats.
- Injury watch: Oneil Cruz (hand, D60) and Mitch Keller (arm, D60) remain out for Pittsburgh. Milwaukee is without Sal Frelick (shoulder, D10), while Jake Bauers (abdominal) and Kyle Harrison (calf) are day-to-day.
DraftKings Player Props
- Braxton Ashcraft Strikeouts Thrown 6+ (-125) / 7+ (+164)
- Braxton Ashcraft Hits Allowed O/U 4.5 (-158 / +119)
- Dustin May Earned Runs Allowed O/U 1.5 (-149 / +112)
- Dustin May Walks Allowed O/U 1.5 (-112 / -118)
- Jackson Chourio Total Bases O/U 1.5 (+121 / -161)
- William Contreras Hits + Runs + RBIs O/U 1.5 (-114 / -116)
- Bryan Reynolds Hits O/U 0.5 (-188 / +141)
- Brandon Lowe RBIs O/U 0.5 (+185 / -262)
DraftKings Featured Parlays
Playing Favorites (+1345)
Back Thursday’s home favorites to win outright:
- CIN Reds to Win (vs ATH)
- MIL Brewers to Win (vs PIT)
- ATL Braves to Win (vs MIA)
- SEA Mariners to Win (vs DET)
- BOS Red Sox to Win (vs CWS)
Run Party (+1231)
Bet on high-scoring games across Thursday’s slate:
- NYM @ CLE: Over 7.5 Runs
- PIT @ MIL: Over 7.5 Runs
- DET @ SEA: Over 7.5 Runs
- CWS @ BOS: Over 9 Runs
Hit Parade (+1037)
Star hitters each record at least one hit on Thursday:
- Pete Alonso 1+ Hit
- Elly De La Cruz 1+ Hit
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Hit
- Mike Trout 1+ Hit
- Jacob Wilson 1+ Hit
- Bo Bichette 1+ Hit
- Chase DeLauter 1+ Hit
- Jackson Chourio 1+ Hit
Betting Splits Summary
| Metric | Brewers / Over | Pirates / Under |
|---|---|---|
| ML Handle | 28% | 72% |
| ML Bets | 67% | 33% |
| RL Handle | 1% | 99% |
| RL Bets | 57% | 43% |
| Total Handle | 80% | 20% |
| Total Bets | 87% | 13% |
FAQs
What are MLB betting splits?
Betting splits show how the public is wagering on a game by breaking down the percentage of total bets (tickets) and total money (handle) on each side of a market. They help identify which side recreational bettors favor versus where larger, potentially sharper money is landing.
What is the difference between bets and handle?
Bets refer to the number of individual tickets placed, while handle represents the total dollar amount wagered. A side with low bet percentage but high handle percentage suggests fewer bettors placing larger wagers, often interpreted as sharp or professional action.
How do betting splits identify sharp money?
Sharp money refers to wagers placed by professional or highly informed bettors. It is typically identified through handle-vs-bet discrepancies: when a side draws a disproportionate share of money relative to its ticket count, sharps are likely involved.
Should you follow betting splits?
Splits are one tool among many. They are most useful when a clear divergence exists between public tickets and money handle, suggesting professional disagreement with the recreational consensus. They work best combined with line movement analysis and matchup context.
How often do DraftKings betting splits update?
DraftKings betting splits update approximately every two minutes, providing near real-time insight into how the market is moving as game time approaches.
What is the best bet for Brewers vs. Pirates?
Sharp money points toward Pittsburgh on the Moneyline at +116. While 67% of public bets back Milwaukee as the home favorite, 72% of the handle and 99% of Run Line money favor the Pirates. Braxton Ashcraft’s superior peripherals (3.27 xFIP, 26.6% K rate, 1.162 WHIP) against a Milwaukee lineup that strikes out 21.2% of the time give Pittsburgh a legitimate pitching edge despite being on the road.