Two NL East competitors are trending in opposite directions. The Philadelphia Phillies are winners of four straight contests and come off a pair of victories over the Washington Nationals, who are on an MLB-worst losing streak of seven games at the moment. Tonight, they duel in the third game of this series at Citizens Bank Park with first pitch slated for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Nationals vs. Phillies game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Phillies prediction, preview
All of a sudden, the Nats find themselves on a real skid as they hunt for a Wild Card berth. They’ve dropped seven straight outings and have a 55-60 record after seeing their run differential drop to +8, sitting 5.5 games out of a postseason spot. Now, the question is whether sending out Luis Garcia Jr. and Curtis Mead for pitching help was the right move. However, the Phillies are having no such problems, snapping a little bit of a rough patch with their fourth straight win to advance to 61-53 with a +4 differential. After adding Luis Arraez at the deadline, the offensive output may further improve.
RHP Jake Irvin (2-5) draws the start for Washington today with 12 games under his belt. He carries a 5.56 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP, plus 59 strikeouts in 56.2 IP – good for a 23.8% K%, though a 9.7% BB% is on the higher side. He also gives up plenty of hard-hit balls and barrels, sitting in the fifth and second percentiles in each metric. The bullpen has some issues that the team sought to address via trade – a 4.99 ERA that falls 28th with a 1.47 WHIP and an 8.2% K-BB%.
For Philadelphia, young RHP Andrew Painter (1-8) takes the mound after 15 games, 13 of which were starts. It’s been a hard rookie campaign for the 23-year-old, amassing a 6.72 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP and 59 strikeouts over his 71.0 IP. That gives him an 18.3% K% and an 8.4% BB%, but he’s also allowed a high barrel rate. The Phils’ relievers have an ERA of 4.35 that ranks 22nd with a 1.34 WHIP, but a 16.9% K-BB% paces the MLB.
Both lineups have plenty of upside, though the Nats been limited to just three runs in the first two games of this set. They do still lead the MLB with 5.30 runs per game and are second in team OPS at .766. The power ability of this group surpasses just about any other club with a .189 ISO and 166 homers that both rank first, but whether the absence of Garcia Jr. and Mead leads to a downtick in that regard remains uncertain. Plus, James Wood is also on IL, leaving Washington without its top better. In the split against right-handers, the club slashes .246/.3321/.439 with an OPS of .761.
The Phillies are coming off 11 combined runs in this series with six and five in the two outings. The club posts 4.39 runs per game on the year and is 22nd in OPS at .706. Their power is also noteworthy with an ISO of .163 that slots in at 11th and the eighth-most homers at 144. Now, a 23.5% K% is on the higher side and an 8.0% BB% is pretty low, but they’re getting the job done regardless. Against right-handers, the Phils slash .239/.303/.409 with a .711 OPS.
Nationals vs. Phillies pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as a hefty -186 Moneyline favorite at home. The Nationals enter as +174 underdogs to win outright on the road. The run total sits at 9.5 here.
Yesterday, our Phillies -1.5 pick cashed, so we’re looking to follow it with another win. One area that certainly stands out is the over on the run total. We’ve seen the power upside of both of these lineups time and again this year with each ranked top-10 in ISO and dingers; likewise, they’re first and 11th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Both of the starting arms are prone to allowing plenty of scoring, and in particular, they each allow high barrel rates while Irvin’s hard-hit rate is quite poor. There are plenty of ways that runs can cross the plate, but Philly’s bullpen ranks 19th in HR/9 and Washington comes in at 26th in the same stat.
Even with James Wood out of the lineup for the Nats, it’s quite possible the remainder of the order can still combine for over 9.5 runs so long as the Phils keep firing as they have in the first two games of the series. The home team scored at least five runs in each of those, and knowing the visitors, the offense won’t stay quiet for very long.
