Tonight, a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch starts off the next game of a series between the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees. The visitors are playing with house money this year, ahead of schedule and simply trying to make it back into the NL Wild Card picture. The Bronx Bombers, though, are second in the AL East and looking to finally get back to the top of the division as they continue to operate without Aaron Judge in the lineup.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Cardinals vs. Yankees game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Yankees prediction, preview
The Cardinals were great through the earlier portions of the campaign, but it appears the wheels may be starting to fall off. Since the All-Star break, they’re just 6-13 and have dropped below .500 to 56-58, holding a -12 run differential at fourth in the NL Central. The Yankees are 10-8 over the same span and remain 3.5 games out of first in the AL East, bringing a 64-50 overall record with a +83 differential of their own.
RHP Andre Pallante (11-6) is the arm for St. Louis tonight. He brings a nice 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP into this outing over the course of 118.2 IP. Though his 86 strikeouts give him a low 17.3% K%, his 6.9% BB% looks good and he keeps exit velocity down well. The club’s bullpen slots in at 24th in ERA with a 4.40 mark, plus a 1.39 WHIP and a 9.8% K-BB%.
For New York, the club goes with RHP Will Warren (8-5). He carries a 4.14 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP into this game with 109 strikeouts in 108.2 IP. His K% reads 23.0% with a 7.6% BB% as well, though the contact he allows is on the harder side. The relief staff has been elite this year, ranking second in ERA at 3.14 with a 1.22 WHIP and a 13.3% K-BB%.
There’s a big difference between the bats here. The Cardinals are 26th in OPS at .694 and average 4.35 runs per game. They’re more of a small-ball team in some regards at 28th in ISO (.139) and 23rd in homers (118), keeping K% down at 20.5%. Against right-handers, they slash .240/.315/.380 for a .695 OPS.
The Yankees are the inverse in terms of production at the plate. They have a .723 OPS that ranks 14th and produce 4.57 runs per game, but the power in this lineup is elite – the club sits second in ISO (.182) with the second-most home runs (164). That does bring a touch of aggressiveness with the third-highest K% at 24.3%, but still, it often pays off. They also have a .229/.311/.413 slash line against right-handed pitching.
Cardinals vs. Yankees pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Yankees as a -156 Moneyline favorite at home. The Cardinals enter as +147 underdogs to win outright on the road. The run total sits at 8.5 in this matchup.
This does look like it’ll be an interesting pitching matchup. Pallante has continued keeping runs down lately, but Warren’s ERA ballooned to 5.47 across six July starts prior to this one and he allowed six homers in that span. Now, Cardinals star Jordan Walker did miss yesterday’s game as an injury scratch and his status is a little bit unclear for today, so that could be a detriment to the Redbirds’ outlook. Much depends on which version of Warren shows up though – he allowed six earned runs in two of his starts last month but gave up a combined three across the other three (he left one more after 0.2 IP).
New York claimed a 2-0 win last night but lost the first game of this series 13-7. So, the range of outcomes may be wide. With that said though, I do like Warren to have a bounce-back outing of sorts and look much better today. With +178 odds to record a win, that’s a bet I’m happy to take a swing on.
