The chase for the WNBA playoffs continues on Wednesday. The Phoenix Mercury have changed things up in the midst of a difficult season, making the biggest swing of the WNBA trade deadline by acquiring Kelsey Plum. They have a big test against the Atlanta Dream on Wednesday as they look to make an improbable run to the playoffs. Will they pull the upset? Or will the Dream roll as the home favorite?
The Dream enter as 5.5-point home favorites with -218 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury are +180 underdogs, with the game total set at 181.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Mercury-Dream matchup.
Mercury vs. Dream Prediction, Preview
These two teams have played only once this year, an 82-80 Atlanta victory at home. That game was dominated by the stars; Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper had 20 points apiece for the Mercury, while Rhyne Howard piled up 21 points, five rebounds, and eight assists. Allisha Gray sure did her job for the Dream with 18 points of her own, while Angel Reese put up a 17-point, 10-rebound double-double.
But things have changed now. Kelsey Plum is a member of the Mercury, and it’s a whole new ball game. One of the best scoring guards in the league, Plum brings serious juice to an offense that has been starved this season. Her drives will get things flowing, the shooting will take a lot of pressure off Kah and AT, and the pick-and-roll game brings them a new dimension. She already made her impact felt in a dramatic debut against the Chicago Sky.
A lot comes down to Phoenix’s point-of-attack defense. It’s been a problem all season long, and Kelsey Plum’s presence doesn’t exactly help things. Howard does damage almost irrespective of the defense, but it was Jordin Canada who posed the biggest problem of all in the first matchup. Canada’s driving game was on point in that first matchup, dishing out 14 assists. They’ll have to contain better in order to stagnate Atlanta’s attack, or else they stand no chance.
For Atlanta, Angel Reese is the key. She’ll be doing battle with Alyssa Thomas all night, who is the tone-setter for the Mercury on both ends of the floor. If she can keep Thomas off the boards, contain the handoffs, and do strong defensive work in the post, the Dream have to love their chances. But that’s no guarantee when you’re facing The Engine.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to pull out the win, and how should we bet this game?
Mercury vs. Dream Pick, Best Bet
I like it when a trade throws a curveball at us. Before acquiring Plum, the Mercury were awfully predictable. Plodding offense and unspectacular defense. But now, they have a legitimate star trio, which changes their outlook. On top of that, the Dream have produced awfully inconsistent regular-season results compared to their talent level. I’ll take the value on the new-look Mercury to pull off the road upset.
