As part of tonight’s full 15-game MLB slate, the New York Mets will take on the Cleveland Guardians. This series opened yesterday, resulting in a 6-2 win for New York. Christian Scott will be on the mound for the Mets, while Tanner Bibee will get the start for the Guardians.
Looking at the odds, the Guardians enter as narrow -110 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mets hold +103 odds of getting the win, and the run total is set at 7.5.
Mets at Guardians prediction, preview
Despite a massive payroll and high expectations entering the season, the Mets enter tonight’s matchup with a 48-66 record. They sit in last place in the National League East and are tied for the fifth-worst record in baseball. Their victory over the Guardians last night snapped a three-game losing streak. On the season overall, the Mets have gone 53-61 to the run line..
Christian Scott will take the mound for New York, marking his 16th start of the season. He enters with a 3-3 record, a 2.99 ERA, a 1.240 WHIP, seven home runs allowed, and 85 strikeouts tallied across 69.1 innings pitched. Scott is coming off 6.0 innings pitched with just one earned run allowed against the Braves in his previous start, which marked his longest outing of the year. He has only faced off with this Guardians lineup in four total at-bats in his career, and has yet to allow a hit.
The Mets’ offense is posting collective slash lines of .233/.303/.381 with a .685 OPS. New York ranks 24th in the MLB in hits, 27th in runs, 13th in home runs, and 14th in strikeouts. Juan Soto headlines the production with 21 home runs, 52 RBI and a National League-leading .947 OPS, but remains on the IL with a calf injury. Bo Bichette has settled in, leading the team with 115 hits, 11 home runs and 54 RBI. Francisco Alvarez, Carson Benge and Marcus Semien have each also notched 10+ home runs on the season.
The Cleveland Guardians enter with a 57-57 record, sitting three games behind the Chicago White Sox for the top spot in the American League Central. Cleveland has struggled a bit of late, losing last night in the series opener and dropping nine of its past 12. On the season, the Guardians have gone 59-55 to the run line.
Tanner Bibee will be making his 24th start of the season for the Guardians. The 27-year-old enters with a 4-11 record, a 3.81 ERA, a 1.149 WHIP, 20 home runs allowed, and 100 strikeouts tallied across his 132.1 innings pitched. Bibee has faced off with this Mets lineup in 45 at-bats in his career, limiting them to slash lines of .178/.260/.333 with a .593 OPS. He has allowed eight hits and tallied eight strikeouts across these opportunities.
At the plate, Cleveland is slashing a collective .231/.311/.369 with a .681 OPS. The Guardians rank 28th in the MLB in hits, 29th in total runs, 28th in home runs, and 17th in strikeouts. Brayan Rocchio and Chase DeLauter are tied with a team-leading 100 hits, combining for 21 home runs and 105 RBI. Steven Kwan adds 93 hits of his own, while Rhys Hoskins, Jose Ramirez, and Angel Martinez have each cracked double-digit home runs.
Mets at Guardians pick, best bet
My lean is toward the Mets finding a way to produce a win tonight and taking a 2-0 series advantage over this Guardians team. New York has quietly played some solid baseball of late, going 5-4 across its past nine, and winning eight of the 17 games since the All-Star break while facing some of the top teams in baseball. The Mets are a far more talented team than they have produced all season, even if it may be too little too late for the outlook on the year.
But my best bet is for the run total to remain under the 7.5 line. Christian Scott has had an excellent season on the mound for New York. Beyond his 2.99 ERA on the season, he has limited opponents to three or fewer earned runs in all but one start this year. He has gone four consecutive starts without allowing a home run and is offering a 1.77 ERA across this stretch. Facing a Guardians team that ranks 28th in hits, 28th in home runs, and 29th in total runs, expect this to be a great chance for Scott to add to his strong statistical season.
On the other side of the matchup, Tanner Bibee has had an encouraging overall season as well, even despite leading the MLB with 11 losses. He is posting a 3.81 ERA on the season, and a 2.98 ERA across his past 10 outings. Bibee’s success against this Mets’ lineup, limiting them to slash lines of .178/.260/.333 with a .593 OPS, is especially encouraging. New York has plenty of offensive production issues of its own, ranking 24th in hits and 27th in total runs. Both of these teams rank in the top 11 in bullpen ERA as well.
Expect both these offenses to struggle to provide consistent scoring threats and for both pitchers to shine in this matchup. The game total has remained under in six of the past seven Mets games and is 21-31-3 to the over/under in away games this season. For the Guardians, the game total has remained under in six of their past nine games played, and the game total has remained under in 30 of the 57 games they have been favorites this year. Buckle up for a pitchers’ duel and expect the 7.5 run total to be too high for this matchup.
Best bet: Game Total Under 7.5 Runs (-105)
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