College football is just around the corner, and it’s time to dive into some conference previews. The Mountain West may not match the talent on a Power Four roster, but these games aren’t lacking in entertainment. Last season, it was Boise State that came away with the conference crown. However, the Broncos will be moving on to the Pac-12 in 2026. While a power vacuum creates uncertainty, it also generates opportunity. Which of these schools has the best shot at winning the MWC?
Below is a preview and predictions for the Mountain West conference, including my best bets for several MWC teams.
Mountain West Football Betting Preview
Mountain West Conference Favorites
UNLV (+260 to win the Mountain West)
Five different programs departed the Mountain West this summer, leaving the top of this conference in disarray. One notable school that opted to stick around is UNLV. The Rebels made it to the championship game for the third straight season last year. However, they came up short against Boise State for the third straight season as well.
Head coach Dan Mullen did a fantastic job during his debut in Las Vegas, leading his group to a stellar 10-4 (6-2) record. This is an offensively-minded program, pacing the MWC with 446.4 yards per game last season. Returning running back Jai’Den Thomas will have another hefty workload, fresh off of a 1,000-yard, 12-touchdown campaign.
Quarterback Jackson Arnold is the headliner this offseason, transferring over from Auburn. Having spent two years in the SEC, the moment won’t be too big for the senior. Arnold is a decent passer and an even better scrambler, rushing for eight touchdowns in just ten games last season. He should do a good job replicating Anthony Colandrea’s production under center for UNLV. If not, former Michigan QB Alex Orji is a quality backup option.
The defense is a bit of a sore spot, at least compared to the other side of the ball. UNLV surrendered 28.0 points per game in 2026, fifth-worst in the Mountain West. Still, this group deserves a bit of praise. They led the conference with a 0.50 turnover margin. Is that a strategy that can be easily replicated? Not quite, but the secondary should be a strength for Mullen’s crew. The sky is the limit for UNLV in conference play.
Best Bet: UNLV over 5.5 conference wins (-125)
New Mexico (+265 to win the Mountain West)
Even more than UNLV, this offseason’s exodus has set New Mexico up for success. This wasn’t a bad team by any means last year, going 9-4 (6-2). In fact, new head coach Jason Eck led the program to its highest win total since 2016 in addition to a Rate Bowl victory. If not for a tiebreaker rule, UNM would have made the MWC Championship Game. Looking ahead to this season, the absence of several former conference contenders opens up all kinds of possibilities for the Lobos.
New Mexico’s hopes likely rest on the continued progression of Jack Layne. The senior wasn’t great last season, throwing for 2,486 yards and 13 touchdowns while coughing up ten interceptions. With that being said, a 65% completion percentage gives offensive coordinator Luke Schleusner something to work with. It helps that pass catchers Cade Keith, Shawn Miller and Zhaiel Smith will be returning. In addition, four different offensive linemen are sticking around in Albuquerque. That last point is crucial, setting up a hard-nosed, deliberate scoring attack led by running back Scottre Humphrey.
However, the strength of this squad is its defense. That’s a bit of an anomaly in the Mountain West, setting New Mexico apart from more high-octane rosters. UNM was fourth in yards allowed per game (341.9), second in tackles for loss (77.0) and first in sacks (36.0) in 2026. This unit specializes in stopping the run, a trait that should serve them well against the many dynamic RBs in this conference.
A road trip to Oklahoma in September is a likely loss, but the rest of this schedule is manageable for New Mexico. The Lobos should be favored in all but one other game this season, a November clash with UNLV. Still, they’ll get to host the Rebels in that high profile matchup. All signs are pointing to another successful season from UNM.
Best Bet: New Mexico to reach Mountain West Conference Championship Game (+125)
North Dakota State (+300 to win the Mountain West)
If there’s a new member of the Mountain West that could shock college football, it’s North Dakota State. For years, this program has ruled the FCS with an iron fist, winning ten national titles between 2011 and 2024. Now, at long last, the Bison have upgraded to FBS status. That makes this team difficult to project, at least in the short term. With respect to its previous dominance, NDSU wasn’t facing the most difficult competition. The non-conference schedule remains unimpressive, with dates against Jacksonville State, Fordham, and Sacramento State.
Since they won’t be taking on the big boys just yet, there’s a chance North Dakota State continues its winning ways. No, the Bison probably won’t steamroll their way to another undefeated regular season…but it’s not impossible. The big tests will be matchups with the aforementioned New Mexico and UNLV. Otherwise, the team should be favored in every other game on its slate. Even more important, this is an experienced group that has grown accustomed to winning. That can’t be overlooked, especially at the collegiate level.
Expect the Bison to rank among the Mountain West’s most prolific offenses, if not at the very top. Nathan Hayes is the man under center in Fargo. He doesn’t have much of a track record, having spent the past two years as a backup behind Cole Payton. Still, third-year head coach Tim Polasek always seems to have a dangerous passing game at his disposal; there’s no reason to think this season will be any different. On the ground, the duo of DJ Scott and Myles Mitchell should get ample opportunity behind a stout offensive line.
Don’t sleep on this defense, however. NDSU allowed just 252.0 yards per game, making its FCS opponents work for every first down. Will this group maintain that level of play? Almost certainly not, but it’s a solid foundation to build off of. There’s some roster churn, especially in the back seven. Still, much like on the other side of the ball, I expect this coaching staff to figure it out. Is a MWC title wishful thinking in Year One? Probably, but North Dakota State is the most intriguing long shot on the board right now. At +175 on the win total, you’re asking the Bison to run the slate and beat just one of New Mexico or UNLV. That’s not an unrealistic request.
Best Bet: North Dakota State to win over 9.5 games (+175)
Mountain West Conference Dark Horses
Hawaii (+480 to win the Mountain West)
The Rainbow Warriors were upgraded to full-time Mountain West status this summer. However, they’ve been football-only members of the conference since 2012. This has been a decent, albeit middling, program during most of that stretch. However, Hawii managed to record a 9-4 (5-3) record last season. That included wins over Power 4 programs in Cal and Stanford. It marked a major breakthrough for head coach Timmy Chang, now in his fifth season with the program. However, is the school’s success sustainable or just a flash in the pan?
This team revolves around its passing game, a throwback to the program’s halcyon days of the 2000’s. Even more promising for the Rainbow Warriors, their leading man is only a sophomore. By all accounts, it was a successful freshman campaign for quarterback Micah Alejado. Through 11 games, he led the Mountain West with 285 completions, 430 pass attempts, 24 touchdowns and 282.4 yards per game. Key wide receivers Pofele Ashlock and Tama Uiliata are also back.
On the downside, it’s fair to worry about chemistry issues for a defense that was revamped in the transfer portal. To boot, the team only went 2-3 on the road last season. That includes a disappointing 40-6 defeat against Arizona, easily the best opponent Hawaii faced. That makes it difficult to give Chang’s crew complete trust in 2026. The Rainbow Warriors have six games outside of Honolulu on this year’s slate, including trips to Arizona State and Stanford.
Best Bet: Hawaii under 6.5 total wins (+140)
Air Force (+550 to win the Mountain West)
Looking for a deep sleeper to win the Mountain West? Air Force might fit the bill. Granted, this program doesn’t fit the bill of a conference champion, at least on paper. They’re coming off of two straight losing seasons, going 4-8 in 2025. Still, as previously mentioned, the MWC landscape has changed overnight. There are added wins to be had on the schedule for some of the conference’s more experienced members.
If there’s one thing the Falcons did exceptionally well last year, it’s putting up points. Among MWC schools, they ranked fourth in scoring (29.8) and yards per game (406.6). In addition, the team scored 30+ points on seven different occasions; they lost five of those contests. The key for this group, unlike some other offensive juggernauts, was a run-heavy play style. Air Force easily lead the Mountain West with 261.4 rushing yards per game; the next-closest school was San Diego State with 198.7. A similar approach would not only deliver points, but keep a subpar defense on the sidelines. Still, replicating that level of production on the ground is a tall order.
The good news? Head coach Troy Calhoun has seen it all, now in his 20th season on campus. To me, that level of leadership is the biggest draw here. In a conference dealing with plenty of moving parts, having stability up top makes a difference. Still, replicating 2025’s extreme ball control won’t be easy. That’s especially true with a defense that needs to replace several key pieces. It’s not as if this unit was particularly strong in 2025 anyways, allowing the conference’s third-most yards per game (423.2). If the run game is slightly less effective this season, even more stress will be placed on that side of the ball. Keeping that in mind, this is a difficult group to back at the moment.
