The MLB’s trade deadline came and went yesterday, letting contenders load up while other teams sold. Today, two NL East foes are set to battle following some roster shakeups, pitting the Washington Nationals against the Philadelphia Phillies as these sides both try and snap some recent cold streaks. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Nationals vs. Phillies game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Both of these clubs are postseason hopefuls, but each have slipped recently. The Nationals have fallen below the .500 mark at 55-59 with a +13 run differential, dropping six consecutive games. They did shake things up a little bit, shipping out Curtis Mead several days ago for a Connerly Early, then sending away Luis Garcia Jr. for reliever help. The Phillies, meanwhile, are 60-53 and have a run differential of -1, also winning three straight games following a cold streak coming out of the All-Star break. They added professional hitter Luis Arraez as their biggest name at the deadline.
For Washington, LHP Carson Palmquist (0-1) gets the start this evening. He’s thrown just 16 innings over 10 games, working around three innings in most of his starts. He has a very high 7.31 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in that limited sample, striking out 15 hitters for a 20.3 K% with a 9.5% BB%. The bullpen has its fair share of issues with a 4.99 ERA that falls 28th with a 1.47 WHIP and an 8.2% K-BB%, but that’s why the club made some of the trades it did to shore up this staff.
Philadelphia starts LHP Jesus Luzardo (9-5), who has 128.2 IP under his belt across 22 starts this year. He’s been excellent, delivering a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 157 punchouts, good for a 29.2% K% with a 7.6% BB%. His underlying metrics also largely look great. The club’s relievers have an ERA of 4.36 that ranks 23rd, though the WHIP is just 1.34 and the K-BB% of 16.9% is the sport’s best.
Both lineups have plenty of upside, though the Nats access theirs more often. They lead the MLB with 5.35 runs per game and are second in team OPS at .768. The power prowess of this group is quite impressive with a .190 ISO and 166 that also lead the sport, and they don’t sacrifice plate approach to do so. Against lefties, they slash an awesome .262/.341/.444 with a .784 OPS. The Phillies post 4.39 runs per game and are 23rd in OPS at .705 overall. The ISO of .164 slots in at 11th and they’re eighth in homers with 144, too. A 23.6% K% is on the higher side, and against southpaws, they slash only .232/.310/.383 with a .692 OPS.
Nationals vs. Phillies pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as a strong -298 Moneyline favorite at home, with the Nationals listed as +237 underdogs to win outright on the road. The run total sits at nine for this one.
By all means, this should be Philadelphia’s game to lose given the distinct advantage the club has on the mound with Luzardo. He’s been very, very good this season and was on a heater across his five July starts with a 2.59 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 31.1 IP – he’s in his best form after allowing just one or fewer earned run in all but one of those games, though the most recent starts was a six-ER blow-up performance. The Nats could get the better of him given their ability to smash lefties this season, but it’s certainly worth noting that they shipped out Mead and Garcia Jr., who were two of their best power hitters. As they adjust to a new lineup, perhaps we see a less-potent version of this offense show its head tonight. With that in mind, Philly at -1.5 does make some sense in this spot.
