The MLB’s trade deadline came and went yesterday, letting contenders load up while other teams sold. One of the clear winners of the roster shuffling was the Boston Red Sox, who won the Adley Rutschman sweepstakes and made some other moves to shore things up and prep for the postseason push. Tonight, they duel the Chicago White Sox at Fenway, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s White Sox vs. Red Sox game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
White Sox vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
The White Sox remain atop the AL Central at 59-52 with a +55 run differential, holding a three-game lead in the division. They may see a little more competition from Cleveland, which loaded up a little bit at the deadline, but the results from Chicago have been very solid overall. The Red Sox are still the hottest team in baseball though, winning five straight and carrying their July momentum into August. They’re 60-51 with a +60 differential, and after adding Rutschman (who is currently injured) and some bullpen help, the outlook is even brighter moving forward.
Chicago’s starter tonight is RHP Davis Martin (9-5), who was great in the early stages of the campaign but has faded some lately. He holds a 3.62 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and 106 strikeouts over 117.0 IP, good for a 21.7% K% and a 7.2% BB%. In July, though, he put forth a 6.60 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over five outings. This bullpen is surprisingly good though, ranking seventh in ERA at 3.78 with a 1.30 WHIP and a 12.3% K-BB%.
For Boston, it’ll be LHP Patrick Sandoval (0-0) making his fifth appearance of the year. In four starts, he has a 3.32 ERA but a 1.58 WHIP with 20 strikeouts over 19.0 IP. That gives him a 23.3% K% and a 7.0% BB%. The Red Sox relief staff is arguably the strongest in baseball, producing an MLB-best 2.95 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a 15.4% K-BB%.
Now, let’s look at the offensive side of things. The White Sox average 4.78 runs per game while the Red Sox produce 4.27, and they’re 14th (.723) and 18th (.711) in OPS, respectively. Now, Chicago does have a major edge in terms of power with a .170 ISO that ranks fourth and 146 homers, fifth most – especially with Boston 20th at a .152 ISO and 26th in dingers with 111. Still, there’s plenty of talent in both lineups, even if both land on the poorer side of their splits. The White Sox slash .235/.311/.398 against lefties, the Red Sox bring a line of .238/.307/.379 against right-handers.
White Sox vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Red Sox as a -129 Moneyline favorite at home, with the White Sox listed as +121 underdogs to win outright on the road. The run total sits at an even nine this evening.
The bet I’m looking at tonight is the under on that combined run total of nine. Boston may be averaging 5.24 runs per game since the break, but the club still sits at just 3.84 a night when playing at Fenway this season, the fourth fewest of any club when at its home ballpark. Martin has faded some, but this isn’t a hitter-friendly venue and he has still posted a couple of quality outings even despite some higher variance. Plus, Red Sox batters are just 5-for-35 against him in his career. Could the Chicago offense pose a problem? It’s possible, but both bullpens in this game are good-to-great and should keep scoring down in the later stages of the contest as well. Those factors add up to the under in this spot.
