About 40 minutes after Monday’s MLB trade deadline, the Washington Nationals and the Philadelphia Phillies will kick off a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
The National League East rivals have met seven times this season, with the Phillies (59–53, 2nd NL East) leading five games to two. After seemingly recapturing some momentum after a dreadful start to the second half, they’ll look to keep building toward the postseason against the Nationals (55–58, 4th NL East), who have dropped five straight games and have already initiated their deadline firesale.
Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got Washington southpaw Andrew Alvarez (2–3, 4.06 ERA) taking on Philadelphia right-hander Aaron Nola (3–9, 5.61 ERA).
First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Phillies enter as 1.5-run home favorites with -158 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cardinals are +131 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U nine runs.
Nationals vs. Phillies Preview
Washington Nationals
Washington’s once-potent offense has become a victim of the trade deadline. The club shipped young contributors Curtis Mead and Luis Garcia Jr. — both holding an OPS north of .850 — to the Red Sox and the Yankees, respectively. While the Nationals still feature All-Star sluggers James Wood and CJ Abrams, their lineup took a serious hit in exchange for much-needed pitching relief.
The Nats rank 27th league-wide in ERA (4.76) this year, hampered by an erratic starting rotation. Monday’s starter, Andrew Alvarez, has struggled to buck the trend. The second-year southpaw, 27, enters with a 4.06 ERA and an even worse 4.51 xERA across 15 appearances (seven starts) in 2026. While he keeps the ball in the park, Alvarez has been unable to escape hard contact or limit free passes. He’ll attempt to turn things around with Washington facing its sixth consecutive loss.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies seemingly snapped back into form over the weekend. After an MLB-worst 3–10 start to the second half, they blanked the Orioles in back-to-back contests — punctuated by Sunday’s 8–0 rout that was called off early due to rain. While Kyle Schwarber is slumping, the other members of Philadelphia’s superstar trio are stepping up to carry the offense. Trea Turner, in particular, has been on fire since the All-Star break, hitting .339 with six homers in 15 games.
While the club’s pitching staff is loaded with All-Stars and Cy Young candidates, the back-end of the rotation is considerably thin. That includes Monday’s starter, Aaron Nola. The veteran right-hander, 33, is staked to a 5.61 ERA (4.33 xERA) and a 1.45 WHIP across 22 starts this season, ranking in MLB’s bottom one percent in pitching run value (-21). Still, Nola performed well enough in his start against the Nationals on June 24, holding them to two earned runs over five frames in a 5–4 win.
Nationals vs. Phillies Pick, Best Bet
Washington’s and Philadelphia’s offensive woes fail to outweigh the nightmarish pitching matchup in Monday’s series opener. Andrew Alvarez is still adjusting to the major league level, while Aaron Nola is firmly on the decline. The Nationals and the Phillies have combined for at least nine runs in five of their seven games this year, and they should follow suit when they reignite the division rivalry at Citizens Bank Park.
