Closing down Monday’s three-game WNBA slate, the Phoenix Mercury will take on the Chicago Sky. There could be an additional spark in this matchup as Kelsey Plum could potentially make her Mercury debut after being sent to Phoenix in a blockbuster trade before this weekend’s trade deadline.
This is the third and final matchup between these teams this season. They first faced off on May 15, which resulted in a 91-83 Mercury win. The Sky got back in the win column in the rematch with a 77-66 victory on July 7.
Looking at the odds, the Mercury enter as narrow 1.5-point favorites with -120 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sky are +100 underdogs, with the game total set at 178.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction and pick for this Mercury at Sky matchup.
Mercury at Sky Preview
The Phoenix Mercury enter with an 11-19 record on the season, which slots them at 11th in the WNBA standings. They’re coming off an encouraging 94-92 loss to the New York Liberty, which snapped a three-game winning streak. Phoenix has now won six of its last nine contests. This year, the Mercury are 14-16 against the spread, and the game total is 15-15 to the over/under.
Kelsey Plum has a chance to make her Mercury debut Monday night after spending the past season and a half with the Los Angeles Sparks. Plum is officially listed as questionable under “pending physical,” but she also has not played in over a month due to a leg injury. It is worth noting that the five-time All-Star has battled some injuries this season, but is averaging 23.9 points and 6.4 assists across her 12 games played.
She will join another dynamic scoring guard in the backcourt as Kahleah Copper has headlined the production for the Mercury this season by averaging 20.9 points and 3.7 rebounds. Alyssa Thomas stuffs the stat sheet with 14.9 points, 8.3 assists, and 7.1 rebounds per game. Jovana Nogic and DeWanna Bonner also average in double figures. Sami Whitcomb is the only other name listed on the injury report and is considered probable with knee injury management.
The Mercury are scoring 83.5 points per game this season, which ranks 11th in the WNBA. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, 10th in field-goal percentage and 11th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 86.9 points per game against Phoenix, which ranks seventh in the league. The Mercury also rank 11th in defensive rating, ninth in opponent field-goal percentage and 15th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Chicago Sky sit a half game ahead of the Mercury in the standings with an 11-18 record on the year. They arrive in this matchup riding the momentum of an impressive victory over the Las Vegas Aces, their second-straight win. On the season, the Sky are 17-12 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 19 of their 29 games played.
Injuries have been a factor for the Sky this season. Rickea Jackson is out for the season due to an ACL tear, Skylar Diggins will remain sidelined due to a knee injury, while Azura Stevens has also been ruled out for Monday for personal reasons. Of the available bodies, Sydney Taylor leads the team in scoring with 14.7 points per game. Kamilla Cardoso makes a strong impact on the interior, averaging 14.3 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. Natasha Cloud adds 9.9 points, 4.6 assists, and 3.1 rebounds per contest. DiJonai Carrington and Courtney Vandersloot also play key roles.
The Sky are scoring 87.6 points per game, which ranks ninth in the WNBA. Chicago also ranks 11th in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, and 12th in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 89.4 points per game against the Sky, which ranks 11th in the WNBA. They also rank seventh in defensive rating, sixth in opponent field-goal percentage, and first in opponent three-point percentage.
Mercury at Sky Pick, Best Bet
There is no doubt about the caliber of talent that Kelsey Plum has, but the decision by Phoenix to make this all-in trade considering their place in the standings and Plum’s impending free agency is still a bit puzzling to me. Her status will be worth monitoring as the day progresses. While there will be an emotional lift from Plum’s presence, there will also be some growing pains in getting the former WNBA champion on the page with the rest of the roster if she does step foot on the floor.
The Mercury picked up a victory in the first matchup between these two teams by a score of 91-83. Phoenix extended their lead to as many as 17 and held control for 91% of the matchup. The Mercury especially dominated on the boards, out-rebounding the Sky 40-27.
Chicago got back on top in their most recent matchup, winning 77-66. The Sky held control, leading for 91% of the game and extending the lead to as many as 20. Chicago won the rebounding battle 35-31, and the Mercury were limited to 37% shooting from the field and 29% from beyond the arc.
Both of the previous matchups took place in Phoenix, and Monday’s action will take place in Chicago. While the Sky’s 7-7 record at home is not overly inspiring, it is far better than their 4-11 record on the road. Chicago is also 8-6 against the spread at home and 11-8 against the spread as an underdog. The home team has won in each of the past eight Sky matchups, and Chicago has covered the spread in its last eight games at Wintrust Arena. The Mercury are 6-9 when playing on the road this season, and failed to cover the spread in the lone game they were road favorites.
I am backing the Sky in this matchup and buying their recent stretch of play. They outscored the Aces 31-20 in the fourth quarter to produce an impressive comeback win. Expect some of this momentum to carry over and for the Mercury to have some growing pains with their new-look roster. Back Chicago to produce their third consecutive win and second straight against this Mercury team. Count on Kamilla Cardoso causing some problems on the interior and for Sydney Taylor to maintain her strong stretch of play en route to an upset victory.
