St. Louis arrives in the Bronx at 55-57 after losing seven of its last 10 games. The Cardinals finally stopped the slide Sunday, scoring four ninth-inning runs during a 5-1 win in Toronto. Jordan Walker supplied a two-run single after Toronto extended the inning with a defensive mistake. New York returns home at 63-49 after a 6-4 trip and consecutive wins at Wrigley Field. The Yankees scored exactly two runs in all three games against Chicago. Their pitching staff allowed only three runs across the final 37 innings. Monday also begins a nine-game homestand during New York’s 13th consecutive day without rest. Newly acquired Luis García Jr. should debut hours after the trade deadline closes. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the New York Yankees and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Yankees vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
Cam Schlittler supplies a commanding starting-pitching advantage with a 10-6 record, 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 165 strikeouts. His last two starts produced 13⅔ innings, one run, 20 strikeouts, and zero home runs. Schlittler’s 97.9 mph four-seamer carries 44.5% usage, a .173 average, .274 slugging percentage, and 33.8% whiffs. Hitters have struck out during 38.2% of plate appearances ending with that pitch. His 97.7 mph sinker has limited opponents to a .264 slugging percentage and 29.9% hard contact. Michael McGreevy owns 13 quality starts and a respectable 3.57 ERA, yet his contact indicators look far weaker. He has allowed 90.2 mph contact, 42.6% hard hits, 10.5% barrels, and a .355 xwOBA. McGreevy has surrendered 11 earned runs and 15 hits across his last eight innings.
New York’s left-handed lineup construction should pressure every weak section of McGreevy’s seven-pitch arsenal. His 91.7 mph four-seamer has allowed a .435 slugging percentage, .572 xSLG, and 45.5% hard contact. The cutter has been punished for a .364 average, .591 slugging percentage, and .610 xSLG. His sweeper has been worse, allowing a .765 slugging percentage, .734 xSLG, and 55.2% hard contact. Ben Rice enters with 31 homers and 53 extra-base hits, although he is batting .160 across seven games. His nine homers during the last 30 games provide a stronger measure of sustainable power. García arrives batting .283/.313/.560 with 23 homers, 76 RBI, and an NL-leading slugging percentage. He hit .367 with seven extra-base hits during his final seven Washington games. His career-high 18.5% pulled-air rate fits Yankee Stadium beautifully.
McGreevy still owns a credible survival path through his sinker and changeup. His sinker has held hitters to a .198 average, .279 slugging percentage, and .249 wOBA. The changeup has allowed a .200 average and .324 slugging percentage while generating 24.3% whiffs. New York has also scored two or fewer runs in four consecutive games. Rice has six hits during his last 10 games, while several reserve-level bats remain exposed near the order’s bottom. Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton remain sidelined, removing 31 homers and considerable on-base strength. St. Louis counters with Alec Burleson’s .284 average, 15 homers, and 71 RBI. Walker owns 22 homers and 81 RBI, although his post-break OPS has fallen below .600. Schlittler’s home split presents another concern, with a 3.83 ERA and .729 opponent OPS across nine Yankee Stadium starts.
Cardinals vs. Yankees pick, best bet
The late innings create another substantial New York advantage. Yankees relievers own a 3.01 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 378 strikeouts, and only 37 home runs allowed. St. Louis carries a 4.36 bullpen ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 42 homers allowed. The Cardinals also remain without left-hander JoJo Romero following appendicitis surgery. Romero’s absence weakens their response to Rice, García, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham, and Spencer Jones. Workload slightly reduces New York’s edge. Brent Headrick threw 20 pitches Sunday, Paul Blackburn threw 18, and David Bednar needed 23 during a four-out save. St. Louis used Ryne Stanek, George Soriano, and Riley O’Brien on Sunday, leaving its highest-leverage trio less than fully fresh. Afternoon thunderstorms should clear before first pitch, leaving cloudy conditions near 82 degrees. Warm air should reward McGreevy’s mistakes without creating serious delay risk.
New York’s -217 moneyline asks bettors to pay heavily for an obvious pitching advantage. The under eight requires McGreevy to avoid several dangerous pitch-shape collisions and two taxed bullpens. Yankees -1.5 at -102 offers the cleaner combination of matchup strength and market value. Schlittler can control St. Louis through velocity, strikeouts, and limited free passes. McGreevy must navigate several left-handed hitters with pitches allowing dangerous expected damage. García immediately lengthens an offense that desperately needed another professional at-bat. The Cardinals’ weaker bullpen offers New York additional separation after McGreevy exits. St. Louis has received only 3.29 runs per McGreevy start, the National League’s second-lowest support figure. One productive Yankees inning could therefore create enough distance for the run line.
Best bet: Yankees -1.5 (-102), playable through -110
Projected score: Yankees 5, Cardinals 2
Best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+100) vs. Cardinals
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