Today is the MLB trade deadline, so there’s a lot more attention focused on the baseball world than usual as teams work until the deadline to make last-minute upgrades and sort their rosters out for the playoff run.
Thankfully, the most popular prop bets for today’s MLB slate all surround players who will certainly be on their team’s rosters come 6 p.m. ET. For exactly which props those are, that information can be found at DraftKings Network’s Player Props Page. The Player Props tool provides all the most-bet player props by handle and odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, updated as regularly as every five minutes!
Below, I’ve broken down each of today’s three most popular MLB player props on DraftKings Sportsbook and analyzed why bettors are so high on them, helping you make informed picks ahead of Wednesday’s MLB slate.
Today’s Most Bet MLB Player Props
Take a look at 20+ more popular player props on DraftKings Network’s Player Props Page!
Note: The table above is updated as regularly as every five minutes, so odds are likely to change.
BREAK IT DOWN:
(Stats taken from DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub)
Yordan Alvarez 1+ Home Run (+265)
Alvarez has been absurdly hot since the All-Star break, recording a .407/.536/.759 slash line to vault himself into pole position to win both the Triple Crown and the AL MVP. Across that span, the Cuban has gone deep four times, though not since last Tuesday, and given how well he’s seeing the ball, he’s a threat to go long on any given pitch. Alvarez ranks in the league’s top decile in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, launch-angle sweet-spot percentage, and bat speed, so he should be able to mash one off of Shane Bieber. Bieber has had a brutal season, pitching to a 5.74 ERA, and he’d rank in the bottom quintile in barrel rate if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. The former Cy Young Award winner likes to throw four-seamers or changeups to left-handed batters, and Alvarez has an xSLG of .555 or better against each pitch (.762 against fastballs). He doubled off of Bieber in the latter’s season debut on June 23.
Junior Caminero 1+ Home Run (+255)
Unlike Alvarez, Caminero’s game has dipped slightly since the All-Star break, but a .297/.375/.484 slash line is still solid production. Though he’s only hit two homers in 17 games since the Midsummer Classic, his 30 for the season as a whole represent a much larger sample size. Like Alvarez, Caminero ranks near the league lead in most major power categories, leading the league in bat speed and ranking in the top decile in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. He has an extremely favorable matchup against the Colorado Rockies’ Michael Lorenzen, who ranks in the fourth percentile in hard-hit rate and the seventh percentile in average exit velocity. Lorenzen has also pitched to an 8.34 ERA and given up a .999 OPS at home, the downside of playing at Coors Field, the league’s most hitter-friendly and sixth-most homer-friendly ballpark in the majors.
Ben Rice 1+ Home Run (+258)
Rice has been the New York Yankees’ breakout star this season, recording a .916 OPS and slugging a career-high 31 homers. Like Caminero, he’s cooled off some since the All-Star break, hitting just two homers in 16 games and slashing only .194/.254/.355 across that span, but Rice has done enough throughout the season to prove that he should be treated as a power threat. He actually has a higher xwOBA and xSLG than Caminero while also ranking in the top decile in barrel rate and launch-angle sweet spot. While Rice’s matchup, Michael McGreevy, doesn’t look so friendly on paper (McGreevy has pitched to a solid 3.57 ERA this season), he ranks in just the 12th percentile in barrel rate and the 17th in average exit velocity. McGreevy predominantly throws four-seamers to lefties, and Rice has a 1.000 SLG against righty four-seamers this season. The game will also take place at Yankee Stadium, the league’s seventh-most homer-friendly for lefties.
3-Pick Same Game Parlay
While it’s possible to bet any of these three as a single bet, other bettors may choose to parlay them all together into a less likely but higher-reward proposition.
Junior Caminero 1+ Home Run (+238)
Yordan Alvarez 1+ Home Run (+192)
Hunter Goodman 1+ Home Run (+298)
Parlay Odds: +5004
Head to DraftKings Sportsbook to place these bets, or check out the Player Props Page tool for more options before you fill out your slips!
