Three games of WNBA action will take place across today’s Monday slate, with the postseason starting to inch into view. Tipping off in one of tonight’s opening matchups, the Las Vegas Aces will take on the Atlanta Dream. This is the second matchup between these two teams this season, with the first game occurring on May 17th and resulting in an 85-84 win by the Aces.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Dream enter as 2.5-point favorites and hold -142 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Aces hold +120 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 184.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Aces at Dream matchup.
Aces at Dream Preview
The Las Vegas Aces have climbed to 20-9 on the season, sitting in second place in the WNBA standings. They are looking to bounce back from a frustrating 84-83 loss to the Chicago Sky in the previous game, in which Chicago stormed back to outscore Las Vegas 29-18 in the fourth quarter and complete the comeback win. On the season overall, the Aces are 15-14 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 16 of their 29 games played.
Four-time MVP A’ja Wilson headlines the production, averaging 26.8 points and 9.8 rebounds per night. Jackie Young adds 17.5 points and 6.7 assists, while Chelsea Gray contributes 12.6 points and 7.2 assists of her own. Chennedy Carter and NaLyssa Smith also average double digits, while Jewell Loyd also plays a key role. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus is the lone player expected to miss tonight’s matchup.
Becky Hammon’s squad is scoring 91.4 points per game, which ranks third in the WNBA. The Aces also rank third in offensive rating, first in field-goal percentage and third in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 86.6 points per game against Las Vegas, which ranks sixth in the league. Las Vegas also ranks sixth in defensive rating, fifth in opponent field-goal percentage and 11th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Atlanta Dream have climbed to fourth place in the WNBA standings with an 18-10 record on the year. They are looking to extend a five-game winning streak, but are 6-6 across their past 12. On the season overall, the Dream have gone 10-18 against the spread, and the game total has gone 16-12 to the over/under.
Allisha Gray leads the team with 19.2 points and 3.1 rebounds per game. Rhyne Howard adds 16.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 3.5 assists of her own, while Angel Reese contributes 15.8 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. Jordin Canada is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.3 points and a team-high 7.7 assists. Naz Hillman and Brionna Jones each add 9.3 points per game of their own. Te-Hina Paopao is the lone player expected to miss tonight’s game with a right leg injury.
As a team, the Dream ranks sixth in the league in scoring, averaging 89.4 points per game. They also rank sixth in offensive rating, 11th in field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 85.3 points per game against the Dream, the fifth-lowest mark in the WNBA. Atlanta also ranks fourth in defensive rating, 15th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 14th in opponent three-point percentage.
Aces at Dream Pick, Best Bet
This is a heavyweight WNBA matchup between two of the top five teams in championship odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. It was a thrilling 85-84 win by the Aces when they first faced off, in which the Dream’s comeback effort came up just short. Las Vegas held a lead for 95% of the matchup and extended the lead to as many as 19. But Atlanta outscored them 21-10 in the final period to provide a real scare. The Dream took an 84-83 lead with 36.5 seconds left to play, but a game-winning jumper from Chelsea Gray and an Atlanta turnover on their potential last attempt to get the win secured the result.
The Dream have been a difficult team to profile this season. They rank fifth in opponents’ points per game and fourth in defensive rating, suggesting they are a really solid defensive team. But Atlanta also allows opponents to shoot the best field goal percentage and second-best three-point percentage across the entire league. They do a nice job generating turnovers, but largely have not had a ton of success in half court settings. While the Dream entered on a five-game winning streak, four of these wins came against teams with losing records and in the bottom seven of the league. Expect the Aces to be a bit of a wake-up call compared to the caliber of teams they have recently faced.
Las Vegas has a strong overall offense, ranking third in points per game and third in offensive rating. The Aces take good care of the ball, ranking third in turnovers per game, and rank first in team field goal percentage. A’ja Wilson remains one of the most unguardable players in the league, and the Aces have a respectable enough defense to slow Atlanta’s attack.
Expect a spirited effort from the Aces tonight as they look to wash the taste out of their mouth from the previous squandered opportunity against the Sky. Plenty has changed for both teams since they faced off over two months ago. But the comeback effort from the Dream should also remain on their mind. There is a level of reliability with this Aces team that is not quite the case with the Dream. The turnover battle was an even 13-13 in the first matchup, and as long as Las Vegas takes care of the ball, there will be a clear path to a win tonight. Count on the Aces scoring at a rate the Dream cannot match and covering the 2.5-point spread tonight for the outright win.
