In the afternoon window of today’s 15-game MLB slate, the Brewers will take on the Angels. The Brewers picked up victories in each of the first two games in the series by scores of 6-2 and 3-1. Milwaukee will be looking to complete the sweep tonight with Jacob Misiorowski on the mound, while Walbert Urena will be looking to put a stop to this for the Angels.
Looking at the odds, the Brewers enter as -232 favorites and hold -132 odds on the -1.5 Run Line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Angels are +188 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 7.5 runs.
Brewers at Angels prediction, preview
The Brewers sit in the top spot in the NL Central with a 69-41 record on the season. This trails only the Dodgers for the best record in baseball. Milwaukee has gone 10-4 since returning from the All-Star break. On the season overall, the Brewers have gone 59-51 to the Run Line, and the run total is 49-59-2 to the over/under.
Misiorowski will take the ball for the Brewers today, his 21st start of the season. The young star enters with an MLB-best 1.58 ERA, an 11-4 record, 10 home runs allowed, and 185 strikeouts tallied across 120.0 innings pitched. Milwaukee is likely to be a bit cautious with its approach for the 24-year-old as he has battled some arm fatigue this season, but Misiorowski is in the conversation for the most talented pitchers in baseball when he is playing to his peak. He has yet to face any member of this Angels lineup in his career.
At the plate, the Brewers are slashing a collective .254/.337/.400 with a .737 OPS this season. Milwaukee ranks sixth in MLB in hits, fifth in runs, last in home runs, and limits strikeouts at the seventh-best rate. Brice Turang leads the team with 110 hits on the season, along with 16 home runs and 69 RBI. William Contreras has also cracked triple digits in hits with 107, along with 10 home runs and 57 RBI. Jake Bauers leads the team with 20 home runs and 64 RBI, while Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Gary Sanchez, and Christian Yelich also play important roles.
The Angels have cooled off quite a bit after an encouraging start to the season. They enter this matchup with a 42-69 record on the year, which is the worst record in all of baseball. Los Angeles enters this matchup looking to stop a five-game losing streak, and they have dropped eight of its past nine matchups. On the season overall, the Angels have gone 54-57 to the Run Line, and the game total is 50-60-1 to the over/under.
Urena will get the start for the Angels today, marking his 20th appearance and 18th start on the year. The 22-year-old has been a bright spot for Los Angeles, entering today with a 6-7 record, a 2.70 ERA, a 1.264 WHIP, six home runs allowed, and 88 strikeouts tallied across his 93.1 innings pitched. Urena has also not faced off against any member of this Brewers lineup in his career.
Looking at the offensive production, the Angels are posting collective slash lines of .238/.314/.383 with a .696 OPS. Los Angeles ranks 21st in hits, 20th in runs, 21st in home runs, and has tallied more strikeouts than any other team in the league. Jo Adell leads the team with 101 hits, along with 16 home runs and 62 RBI. Zach Neto adds 98 hits of his own, along with a team-high 19 home runs and 46 RBI. Mike Trout adds 18 home runs and 40 RBI, while Jorge Soler is the lone other player with more than 10 home runs. Oswald Peraza, Vaughn Grissom, and Nolan Schanuel also play notable roles.
Brewers at Angels pick, best bet
Misiorowski is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, with his overpowering velocity causing problems all across the MLB. He leads the league in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, strikeouts per nine innings, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. This is especially problematic facing a middling Angels lineup that has tallied more strikeouts than any team in baseball this year. Misiorowski has tallied 10+ strikeouts in seven of his last 13 starts, and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start this season. This is a matchup where everything points toward the young star dominating, and I’d expect this to be the case today.
The dominance of Misiorowski has me leaning toward the under, especially with Urena pulling his weight on the mound. The Angels starter has allowed one or fewer earned runs in four straight starts and in 14 of his 20 appearances on the season. This is a strong Brewers’ lineup that Urena has not faced to this point.
But even if Urena pulls his weight, I’d expect the outlook to fall apart in the late innings. The Angels’ bullpen is posting a collective 4.37 ERA, good for the ninth-worst rate in the MLB. Los Angeles’ save rate is below 40%, and it was forced to lean on four bullpen arms to get through yesterday’s loss.
The gap in talent between these two teams is larger than the Run Line indicates, and I’d expect this to be put on full display tonight. Milwaukee has an admirable characteristic of finding different ways to win baseball games, and will look to ride its ace today. The Brewers are 13-7 in games that Misiorowski has pitched this season and have averaged 5.6 runs per game across their past seven matchups. Count on Misiorowski putting the team in a strong position to win and for the offense to successfully pull their weight in a comfortable win to complete the sweep.
Best bet: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-132)
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