It is a loaded slate of MLB action, with the Kansas City Royals and Colorado Rockies facing off at 3:10 p.m. ET today. The Rockies have picked up victories each of the first two matchups, by scores of 3-1 and 12-6. Colorado will be looking to complete the sweep with Kyle Freeland on the mound today, while the Royals will hand the ball to Seth Lugo.
Looking at the odds, the Rockies enter as narrow -131 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Royals are +109 underdogs, with the run total set at O/U 11.5 Runs.
Royals at Rockies prediction, preview
The Kansas City Royals sit in last place in the American League Central with a 46-66 record. This is the fourth-worst record in MLB, and Kansas City enters this matchup coming off three straight losses. Still, the Royals have shown some signs of life since returning from the All-Star break, going 8-7 in those games. On the season, Kansas City has gone 51-61 to the run line, and the run total is 51-59-2 to the over/under.
Seth Lugo will take the ball for the Royals today, marking his 23rd start of the year. The former All-Star enters with a 4-6 record, a 4.22 ERA, a 1.367 WHIP, 15 home runs allowed, and 96 strikeouts over 123.2 innings this season. Lugo has had some positive flashes, holding opponents to one or fewer earned runs in nine of his 22 starts. He has faced this Rockies lineup in 53 career at-bats, limiting Colorado to 12 hits and tallying 13 strikeouts.
Looking at the production at the plate, the Royals are slashing a collective .246/.314/.399 with a .713 OPS. Kansas City ranks 11th in hits, 22nd in runs, 23rd in home runs, and ninth in fewest strikeouts allowed. Bobby Witt Jr. leads the team with 103 hits, along with 13 home runs and 39 RBIs, but is currently sidelined on the injured list. Jac Caglianone has had an impressive season with 92 hits, a team-leading 18 home runs, and 42 RBI. Salvador Perez adds 16 home runs and 46 RBI, while Carter Jensen pitches in 15 home runs and 54 RBI of his own. Michael Massey, Isaac Collins, and Nick Loftin also play notable roles.
The Colorado Rockies enter with the second-worst record in baseball and are last in the National League West with a 44-67 record. They opened this series with back-to-back wins, which snapped a four-game losing streak before this. Colorado has gone 5-8 since returning from the All-Star break. On the season overall, the Rockies have gone 59-52 to the run line, and the game total is 52-56-3 to the over/under.
Kyle Freeland will be on the mound for Colorado, making his 20th start of the season. After leading the MLB with 17 losses last year, he enters today’s matchup with a 2-10 record, a 7.34 ERA, a 1.550 WHIP, 21 home runs allowed, and 85 strikeouts tallied across his 99.1 innings pitched. Freeland has faced off against this Royals lineup in 44 at-bats this season, allowing 14 hits and tallying just five strikeouts in these opportunities.
Colorado is slashing a collective .254/.323/.418 with a .741 OPS on the season. They rank fifth in hits, seventh in total runs, 18th in home runs, and have tallied the eighth-most strikeouts in the league. TJ Rumfield leads the team with 114 hits on the season, along with 13 home runs and 57 RBI. Hunter Goodman is tied for a National League-leading 33 home runs, along with 65 RBI and 99 total hits on the year. Mickey Moniak, Willi Castro, and Jake McCarthy each have recorded double-digit long balls as well, while Troy Johnston, Kyle Karros, and Ezequiel Tovar also play key roles.
Royals at Rockies pick, best bet
It has been a frustrating overall season for both teams, but the long grind of the MLB season continues regardless. Fading Kyle Freeland has been a favorite strategy of mine this season, as he holds a 2-10 win/loss record and the Rockies are 6-14 in games he has started this season. My lean is to back the Royals on the moneyline tonight. However, I am backing the game total to go over the 11.5 run line tonight and for both offenses to remain hot as my best bet.
The bats were hot on both sides yesterday during the 12-6 win for the Rockies. Hunter Goodman led the production with four hits and two home runs, and there were six total homers in this matchup. The game total surpassed the 11.5 run total yesterday during the fifth inning, and both pitchers on the mound today are also vulnerable to leaking runs to opponents.
Freeland has allowed four or more earned runs in four consecutive starts and in 12 of his 20 starts overall. He has given up six or more runs in seven of these opportunities, and has conceded 21 home runs in 20 starts, including four homers in his past two outings. While Lugo has some better raw metrics, he put forth a 1.15 ERA through his first five starts, and is offering a 5.26 ERA across his past 17 starts. He has allowed three or more earned runs in nine total starts this season, but eight of his past 15. The outlook does not get much better if these pitchers are chased early, as both these bullpens rank in the bottom three in collective ERA this year.
This matchup is taking place at Coors Field, which is one of the most hitter friendly parks in the MLB. Expect this to be problematic with each of these pitchers on the mound and for plenty of runs to be tallied from both sides. Expect the 11.5 run total to be too low and for both offenses to build off their impressive output last night.
Best bet: Run Total Over 11.5 (-112)
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