This one is going to be exciting. The Indiana Fever and the Minnesota Lynx are two of the top contenders in the WNBA this season and will meet mere hours before the trade deadline. Minnesota inches closer to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, but the Fever could close the gap with a hot stretch. With plenty of stars on both sides, it’s going to be quite the matchup.
The Lynx enter as 5.5-point home favorites with -225 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fever are +185 underdogs, with the game total set at 193.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Fever-Lynx matchup.
Fever vs. Lynx Prediction, Preview
Somehow, this is the first matchup of the season between these two teams. They’ll meet three times down the stretch, once on Sunday and twice on a back-to-back to finish the season. Since the Fever sit 4.5 games behind the Lynx for the top overall seed, a clean sweep of the season series could put them in position for first place heading into the playoffs.
This matchup starts with the backcourt. Olivia Miles has been one of the best players in the WNBA this year, and the rookie has a good case for being the best point guard in the league. Her blend of scoring efficiency, passing excellence, and defensive competency is hard to match. But she will have her hands full with Caitlin Clark, who can produce highs that only A’ja Wilson can match. The problem for Clark is the lows, when the shots don’t fall, and the turnovers get out of hand.
Courtney Williams vs. Kelsey Mitchell is quite the matchup as well. Mitchell gets buckets like no other, and when she gets hot, no level of shot contest can stop her. That’s a valuable trait to have when facing Williams, one of the best perimeter defenders in the game. It should be a fascinating matchup between the two on both ends of the floor, as Williams’ excellence as a midrange scorer is a button the Lynx can press to take advantage of Mitchell’s defensive shortcomings.
But the frontcourt is where the real work is getting done. Napheesa Collier is back in action, and it’s like she never left. The Lynx superstar is averaging 18.3 points, seven rebounds, and 2.7 combined steals and blocks per game in her return from a long injury layoff. That kind of production after so much missed time is absurd. Alongside Kayla McBride, Collier gives Minnesota the best two-way frontcourt in the league.
They will be sorely tested by Aliyah Boston. Though injuries have dogged her this year, Boston continues her ascent toward the inner circle of WNBA stars. Her rim protection is elite, the playmaking as a post hub is excellent, and Boston finishes plays with the best of them. It’s unfair that she has become such a good pick-and-pop threat on top of all this. McBride and Collier will have to keep a close eye on Indiana’s elite paint threat.
The X-factor for me is the battle between Monique Billings and Natasha Howard. Both forwards are in their debut season with the team, but Howard has been a considerably better fit than Billings. If Monique can bring the defense and boards with a dash of scoring, it can keep Minnesota’s excellent offense at bay. But if Howard wins that matchup decisively, Minnesota has a significant edge.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to pull out the win, and how should we bet this game?
Fever vs. Lynx Pick, Best Bet
My problem with the Fever this year is that they don’t show up against fellow contenders. When playing the other teams in the top six of the playoffs — Las Vegas, Atlanta, Golden State, and Dallas — the Fever are 4-5 overall. A lot of that problem is Caitlin Clark. If you sort her 25 games by game score, the top 11 performances are all against teams outside the top six, and only one is against a playoff team. I’m not counting on Clark and the Fever passing the test against Minnesota, especially with Collier back in the mix.
