The Wings are hosting the Sun on Sunday night. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Dallas is favored by 10.5 points and this game carries a total of 173.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Wings vs. Sun Preview
The Wings and Sun went head-to-head for the first time this season on July 2nd in Connecticut and Dallas prevailed in a close contest, 86-83. While this tight score suggests otherwise, these two clubs have had very different seasons.
The Wings are the No. 6 seed at 18-11 and rank sixth in net rating, whereas the Sun are the No. 14 seed at 7-22 and rank dead last in net rating. Both these teams are in the midst of losing streaks, as the Wings have dropped two in a row while the Sun have lost four straight.
Dallas is coming off road losses to the Dream and the Mystics, both of which were hard-fought games that were decided by single digits. Atlanta has had the Wings’ number this season, going 3-0 in this matchup and Washington has been playing much better as of late. So, while these losses were disappointing, they aren’t overly concerning.
Along with the top-seeded Lynx, the Wings are one of only two teams this season that rank top-five in both offensive and defensive rating. Paige Bueckers is an MVP candidate, averaging 20.8 PPG on 51.3% shooting, and she has some strong pieces around her in Arike Ogunbowale, Jessica Shepard and Azzi Fudd.
Dallas has yet to lose three consecutive games and the club is 7-3 following a loss. Furthermore, the Wings are 8-5 at home this season, so them returning back to Dallas to face the Sun feels like a perfect recipe for the Wings to get back on track.
Connecticut is the league’s worst-rated offense and its defense is nothing to brag about, ranking 11th in rating. Although, there are some encouraging factors for the Sun tonight. First off, Brittney Griner (knee) is listed as questionable and could make her return from a three-game absence. She was listed as doubtful or out for these past three, so the questionable tag is an improvement and bodes well for her chances of playing.
Griner being available would be big news for Connecticut’s defense. With Griner on the floor, the Sun’s defense is 6.4 points per 100 possessions better than with her off.
Connecticut also just traded Aneesah Morrow to the Tempo on Friday. The former No. 7 pick has had some big games this season, but Morrow’s ball-dominating ways have hurt the team, as the Sun’s net rating is 11.1 points per 100 possessions better with her off the floor than with her on.
Connecticut is a solid 4-5 with Morrow inactive, compared to a terrible 3-17 with her active. The Sun and Morrow clearly weren’t a strong match, and this team should play better without her going forward. Morrow being gone creates a clearer path for Leila Lacan and Diamond Miller to see featured roles alongside Griner when she is healthy.
If Griner suits up tonight, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sun put up another strong fight against the Wings, but if she is out, Connecticut will be in big trouble. With Griner inactive, the Sun are just 1-12.
Wings vs. Sun Pick, Best Bet
The Wings are the far better team in this matchup and returning home should help them snap their two-game losing streak.
That being said, with Griner trending toward playing and Morrow out of town, the Sun are in a solid position to be competitive and Dallas is just 7-9 ATS as a favorite. The Sun only lost by three points to the Wings with Griner active last month and the Sun +11.5 is the right play for this matchup.
