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Prediction, pick for Vlasto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina at UFC Belgrade

Prediction, pick for Vlasto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina at UFC Belgrade

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

Serbian middleweight prospect Vlasto Cepo is making his Octagon debut in his backyard, taking on Gilbert Urbina at UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez on Saturday night in Belgrade, Serbia.

Cepo (14–3, 0–0 UFC) arrives with a 100 percent finish rate, fresh off an impressive run in Europe’s OKTAGON MMA, where he went 4–1 with four knockouts. Urbina (7–5, 1–3 UFC) returns after nearly a year away from the cage, which followed his second-straight knockout loss at the hands of Uros Medic in August. 

Cepo enters as a heavy -355 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Urbina is a +280 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 1.5 rounds.

Cepo vs. Urbina Preview

Vlasto Cepo

  • 14–3 (0–0 UFC)
  • 10–1 (T)KO
  • 4–1 SUB

Serbia’s own Vlasto Cepo is looking to make an emphatic first impression in the UFC. He makes his promotional debut with lethal boxing, relentless forward pressure, and a “Kill Or Be Killed” mentality — evidently the formula for a 100 percent finish rate. All but one of Cepo’s pro victories went beyond the first round.  

While “El Chapo,” 31, has shown vulnerabilities against grapplers in the past, he tends to send his opponents careening to the canvas before they can take the fight there. And on Saturday, the tatted-up stoppage artist will look to extend his highlight reel while putting the rest of the 185-pound division on notice.

Gilbert Urbina

  • 7–5 (1–3 UFC)
  • 2–3 (T)KO
  • 2–1 SUB

Gilbert Urbina has struggled to carve out much of a foothold in the middleweight division since his Octagon debut in 2021. Despite his respectable grappling background, his style has not been conducive to winning — nor preservative to his own durability. All of Urbina’s Octagon losses — and four out of five, overall — have come by stoppage within two rounds.

“The RGV Bad Boy,” 30, will likely attempt to make Saturday’s bout a war of attrition — wearing his opponent down with his grappling while avoiding a stand-up clash at all costs. That’s easier said than done given Urbina’s track record, stamped with just one fight in the last 900-plus days.

Cepo vs. Urbina Pick, Best Bet

On Saturday, Gilbert Urbina will try to fend off ring rust and an absolute freight train of an opponent at the same time. That said, he may be able to extend the bout — i.e., avoid another quick stoppage — by leaning on his Octagon experience and grappling base. 

Surging prospect Vlasto Cepo is known for taking care of business quickly; he’s currently a -145 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook to win by first-round knockout. But in his Octagon debut against an experienced — albeit grizzled — veteran, there’s strong value in backing “El Chapo” to require a few extra minutes to get the job done in Belgrade.

Best Bet: Vlasto Cepo by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+600)

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.