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Prediction, pick for Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura at UFC Belgrade

Prediction, pick for Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura at UFC Belgrade

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

Beleaguered Big Boys collide on Saturday night, as hometown favorite Aleksandar Rakic takes on Poland’s Marcin Tybura at UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez in Belgrade, Serbia. 

Rakic (14–6, 6–5 UFC) will make his heavyweight debut after dropping four straight fights at 205 pounds, capped by a first-round TKO loss to Azamat Murzakanov in October. Tybura (27–11, 14–10 UFC) has lost back-to-back bouts, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Tyrell Fortune in March. 

Rakic enters as a heavy -345 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tybura is a +275 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 1.5 rounds.

Rakic vs. Tybura Preview

Aleksandar Rakic (#13 Light Heavyweight)

  • 14–6 (6–5 UFC)
  • 9–3 (T)KO
  • 1–1 SUB

Aleksandar Rakic is eyeing a fresh start on Saturday, making his heavyweight debut in his backyard. “Rocket” is moving up following a disastrous slip at 205 pounds, in which he dropped five of his last seven bouts — including four straight since 2022, with three of those losses coming by knockout or TKO.

But despite his recent form and compromised chin, Rakic, 34, should look far more comfortable fighting at his natural weight. He’ll be able to employ a considerable speed advantage, while bolstering his lethal kickboxing game with an extra forty-something pounds of mass. If he can put it all on display, there’s a strong chance that Rakic carves out his spot in the division’s top 15.

Marcin Tybura (#13)

  • 27–11 (14–10 UFC)
  • 10–6 (T)KO
  • 7–1 SUB

Marcin Tybura has accrued a ton of mileage in his MMA career, which dates back to 2011. At 40, he’s the oldest active heavyweight not named Derrick Lewis (41). And on Saturday, he’ll make his 25th trip to the Octagon — eager to course-correct after dropping five of his last 10 bouts, including two straight. 

While the Polish veteran wields knockout power and black-belt jiu-jitsu, both his skills and durability have withered with age. Tybura has suffered six pro losses by knockout or TKO — including a first-round stoppage at the hands of Ante Delija in September — and got outclassed on the ground in his latest bout against Tyrell Fortune in March. Tybura won’t just be fighting Rakic in Belgrade — he’ll also be taking on Father Time. 

Rakic vs. Tybura Pick, Best Bet

Aleksandar Rakic looks poised to shine in his heavyweight debut, taking on a fading veteran in his own backyard. Finally competing at his natural weight, “Rocket” should employ his strong takedown defense — 85 percent — to keep things standing against the stumbling Marcin Tybura. From there, Rakic can unleash his explosive kickboxing to test his opponent’s eroding chin.

With nine knockout wins on his resume, the hometown favorite should go for double-digits in Belgrade. 

Best Bet: Aleksandar Rakic by KO/TKO/DQ (+120)

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