There’s a fun NL Central fight scheduled for this afternoon as part of a massive MLB slate. The Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in a skid as they try and get back on track to snap a four-game losing streak. Today, they get a date with the Cincinnati Reds, who have won seven of their last 10 games and are playing some of their best baseball right now as they claw their way closer to the .500 mark. First pitch for Saturday’s matchup is set for 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Pirates vs. Reds game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Reds prediction, preview
The NL Central is getting gradually more interesting with each passing day. The Pirates held a Wild Card spot for quite a while, but they’ve lost four straight games and seven of their last 10. Now, they’re 55-56 with a +35 run differential, third in the division. Meanwhile, the Reds are gaining ground and are up to 52-57 after winning seven of their own last 10 outings. A run differential of -68 does raise red flags, but they’ve put some quality baseball on the field lately and are 4.5 games shy of a Wild Card berth, just two behind Pittsburgh.
For Pittsburgh, RHP Braxton Ashcraft (10-4) heads to the mound. He carries a 4.05 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 135 strikeouts across 122.1 IP into this outing. His chase rate sits in the 97th percentile with a 26.6% K% and a 5.9% BB%, as well. The Pirates’ relievers are 23rd in ERA with a 4.38 mark, bringing a 1.42 WHIP and a 12.7% K-BB% as well.
LHP Andrew Abbott (5-6) gets the start for Cincinnati here. He’s pitched to the tune of a 3.85 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and 94 punchouts over 117.0 IP. His underlying numbers aren’t great, bringing an 18.6% K% and 10.7% BB%. The bullpen behind him has a 4.52 ERA that ranks 15th, plus a 1.45 WHIP and an 8.0% K-BB%.
There’s a big disparity between these bats on the full season’s sample. The Pirates rank third in OPS at .755 with 5.15 runs per game, second most of any MLB club. They’re also 14th in ISO (.160) and ninth in homers (139), though the aggressiveness does have them fifth highest in K% (24.0%). Against left-handers though, they slash .248/.312/.388 for a reduced .700 OPS.
The results for the Reds don’t speak nearly the same. They’re 21st in OPS at .707 with only 4.14 runs per game. Cincinnati slides in at eighth in ISO (.166) and seventh in homers (141), which also has them leading the MLB – and not in a positive way – in K% (25.2%). The club slashes just .226/.302/.387 for a .690 OPS against right-handers.
Pirates vs. Reds pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pirates as -125 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight with the Reds trailing as +104 home underdogs. The run total sits at 8.5 combined runs.
Neither team is on the plus side of its splits today, so that does make things a little bit tougher to project. Nor does either bullpen stand out, which also further complicates a pick. However, here’s what we can do. Ashcraft has performed quite well in the past against Cincinnati batters, allowing a line of just 11-for-54 (.204) with 12 strikeouts, eight walks and a .566 OPS; he’s struggled in his last three starts though, conceding at least four earned runs in each. Meanwhile, Abbott brings a line of 15-for-66 (.227) mark allowed to Pittsburgh hitters with five walks, 17 Ks and a .691 OPS. He’s been a little hotter lately, so momentum is not only on his side, but in the Reds’ favor as well.
For what it’s worth, the Reds have a .733 OPS since the All-Star break and have played much better baseball than their opponents, who are at .670 and have been losing steam. This is about as much of a toss-up as you get these days, but a Moneyline pick for Cincy is compelling with plus value after taking the first two games of this series.
