We’ve got a Saturday matchup between two recent contenders on the downswing. The 2024 WNBA champion New York Liberty are struggling mightily to find consistency, while the 2025 runners-up Phoenix Mercury are staring down the barrel of a lost season. With the trade deadline looming on Sunday, both teams will be competing hard to leave a last impression on management before the final trade calls are made.
The Liberty enter as 1.5-point road favorites with -135 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury are +114 underdogs, with the game total set at 175.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Liberty-Mercury matchup.
Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction, Preview
These two teams met in a back-to-back in late May. Both games were played in New York, and the Liberty took both. The first game, an 84-74 win, was decided on the defensive end of the floor. With Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally out, Jonquel Jones had a lot of pressure on her shoulders, and delivered with a decisive performance against Alyssa Thomas in the frontcourt. The former MVP put up 17 points and 12 rebounds while holding AT to nine points on 4-of-9 shooting.
New York locked in defensively for the second game as well, holding the Mercury to 68 points in a slim, seven-point win. Breanna Stewart and Jones both struggled offensively, but did more than enough defensively for the win. Rookie Pauline Astier showed up with 16 points and six assists for the Libs, both team-leading marks. Once again, Phoenix’s stars struggled offensively; Thomas had 15 points on 5-of-14 shooting, while Kahleah Copper had 16 points on 16 shots.
The key again for the Liberty will be to contain the stars. Phoenix pulled a big upset over the Valkyries in their last game because Golden State had no answer for Thomas down the stretch. Luckily, when you have Jones and Stewart, containing frontcourt problems comes easy. Getting continued strong play from Ionescu is important as well; though the Aces broke her streak of 20-point games, the fact that there was a streak is a great sign considering how the first half of the season went for her.
Phoenix, as usual, needs its stars to succeed. Thomas is still “The Engine” on both ends of the floor, and her post play can elevate the offense while she shuts down top stars. Copper’s shotmaking can flip the script on any game. DeWanna Bonner, Monique Akoa Makani, and Natasha Mack have all had their moments for Phoenix this season, and while I don’t want to discount their impact, the Mercury go as their star duo goes.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to pull out the win, and how should we bet this game?
Liberty vs. Mercury Pick, Best Bet
The Liberty are awfully hard to trust, but we’ve seen what they can do at their best. The problem is that they play down to the level of their competition. No matter what, things will be close. However, this line is awfully kind to the Mercury, who are clearly the worse team here. Much less healthy Liberty teams have handled the Mercury this year, and now that Sabrina Ionescu is back in the lineup and healthy, I expect they’ll make it 3-for-3 on the season against Phoenix.
